VHF

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng và Chế biến lương thực Vĩnh Hà

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

3.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

860

Current

3.700

Gap

-76.8%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

63.80%

Kd(1-t)

6.40%

D/(D+E)

36.20%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default4.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→6.94B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

6.94B

Growth Rate

4.00%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

860

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VHF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.99

Moderate

DSRI

1.027

GMI

0.655

AQI

0.898

SGI

1.090

DEPI

1.146

SGAI

1.249

TATA

0.140

LVGI

1.069

VHF exhibits potential red flags for earnings manipulation as indicated by a Beneish M-Score of -1.9934, which is below the threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 36.0/100 further highlights concerns, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.9934 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 36.0/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests severe issues in converting earnings into cash.
SGAI of 1.2490 indicates aggressive spending on sales and marketing, which may not translate into revenue growth.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 1.0270 suggests that the company is managing its receivables in line with sales growth, which is a positive sign.
The ownership structure shows significant institutional ownership (75.0%), which may provide stability and oversight.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include two major institutional investors holding a combined 75.0%, which can mitigate risks associated with individual shareholder influence. However, the high concentration of ownership may lead to governance issues if interests diverge.

Recommendation

Investors should approach VHF with caution due to the elevated risk of earnings manipulation and poor cash conversion. It is advisable to monitor future earnings reports closely and consider a more thorough due diligence process before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.06

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-2.58

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

+7.1%

Volatility

67.1%

Max Drawdown

-66.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

22.94P/E

P/B0.69

P/S0.26

ROE3.0%

ROA1.9%

EPS322.63

BVPS10742.47

Gross Margin6.2%

Net Margin1.1%

D/E0.63

Current Ratio2.35

Rev Growth8.7%

Profit Growth40.3%

EV/EBITDA-29.41

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

21.5M

Charter Capital

215.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VHF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Bắc

Inst

51.0%

11.0 trieu

Công Ty TNHH Xây Dựng Htb

Inst

24.0%

5.2 trieu

Thái Thị Mỹ Sang

Indiv

19.5%

4.2 trieu

Phạm Đình Cương

Indiv

0.6%

130.200

Bùi Thị Thu Hiền

Indiv

0.2%

45.500

Lê Hải Long

Indiv

0.2%

36.800

Nguyễn Long Biên

Indiv

0.1%

28.000

Board & Management

Phạm Đình Cương0.6%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Bùi Thị Thu Hiền0.2%

Kế toán trưởng

Lê Hải Long0.2%

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Toản

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Khắc Quý

Phó Giám đốc/Giám đốc Xí nghiệp

Lê Văn Thành

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Hoàng Hùng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Diệu Thúy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Thị Thúy

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Thị Thanh Hương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lưu Thị Tuyết Mai

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

BMV97.8%FHN51.0%BMJ24.2%ACC23.7%ITD4.9%SCL2.6%UNI1.8%SGT1.5%SMC1.4%UMC1.1%

Computed 12/04/2026