FHN

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Lương thực - Thực phẩm Hà Nội

Bán lẻ/Phân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩmCT

10.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

168.623

Current

10.000

Gap

+500.0%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bán lẻ→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Bán lẻ" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

49.28%

Kd(1-t)

5.19%

D/(D+E)

50.72%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.48%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→29.32B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

29.32B

Growth Rate

2.48%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

168.623

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — FHN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.21

Moderate

DSRI

0.392

GMI

1.144

AQI

1.119

SGI

1.111

DEPI

0.917

SGAI

0.872

TATA

0.116

LVGI

0.842

The Beneish M-Score of -2.2085 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 52.5/100, particularly the low cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 52.5/100 is below average, indicating potential issues with earnings sustainability.
Cash conversion score of 0.0/100 suggests significant discrepancies between reported earnings and actual cash flows.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.2085 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests strong management of accounts receivable.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Bắc (51.0%) indicates potential influence over financial reporting, which could pose risks related to transparency and governance.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and consider conducting further due diligence on the company's financial practices before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

7.00

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.55

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+0.7%

Volatility

44.9%

Max Drawdown

-35.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

15.02P/E

P/B0.29

P/S0.03

ROE2.1%

ROA1.1%

EPS740.03

BVPS34659.61

Gross Margin4.5%

Net Margin0.2%

D/E0.75

Current Ratio1.16

Rev Growth11.1%

Profit Growth9.2%

EV/EBITDA2.03

Div Yield10.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

3.0M

Charter Capital

30.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bán lẻ

Industry (ICB L3)

Phân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩm

Sub-industry

Phân phối thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for FHN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Lương thực Miền Bắc

Inst

51.0%

1.5 trieu

Bùi Thị Tú Giang

Indiv

3.0%

88.700

Cao Bá Trung

Indiv

2.3%

68.900

Trần Linh Phương

Indiv

1.6%

49.200

Trần Hữu Hạnh

Indiv

0.6%

18.100

Hoàng Đức Mạnh

Indiv

0.5%

16.500

Nguyễn Văn Sửu

Indiv

0.4%

13.400

Đào Tiến Dũng

Indiv

0.4%

12.000

Trịnh Ngọc Anh

Indiv

0.3%

9.400

Vũ Hà Hải

Indiv

0.3%

7.900

Phạm Thị Thanh Thủy

Indiv

0.2%

5.300

Board & Management

Bùi Thị Tú Giang3.0%

Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Cao Bá Trung2.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Hữu Hạnh0.6%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Sửu0.4%

Phó Giám đốc

Vũ Hà Hải0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Thanh Thủy0.2%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Thị Thu Thủy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Dương Tuấn Linh

Kế toán trưởng

Phan Vũ Anh

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thị Bảo

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

BMV97.8%VHF51.0%PVR5.3%VXT2 links

Computed 12/04/2026