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Cyclicals sector

DRI

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Cao su Đắk Lắk
Hóa chấtCT
13.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
12.259
Current
13.000
Gap
-5.7%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA171.37B
Fair EV/EBITDA5.3x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
171.37B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
5.3x
-
Net Debt
11.63B
=
Equity Value
12.259
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DRI

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

54
Fair
Accrual Quality
85
Cash Conversion
62
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

0.49
High Risk
DSRI
3.687
GMI
1.050
AQI
0.957
SGI
1.453
DEPI
1.055
SGAI
0.891
TATA
0.038
LVGI
1.357

DRI exhibits several concerning indicators of potential financial manipulation, particularly highlighted by a Beneish M-Score of 0.4928, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The high DSRI of 3.6875 and low AQI of 0.9574 further suggest issues with revenue recognition and earnings quality.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 0.4928 indicates potential earnings manipulation, well above the threshold of -1.78.
  • DSRI of 3.6875 suggests significant growth in receivables relative to sales, raising concerns about revenue recognition.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 53.9/100 indicates moderate earnings quality, with 0.0/100 in receivables and revenue metrics, signaling potential issues in revenue reporting.
Positive Signals
  • Strong eq_margin score of 100.0/100 indicates effective cost management and profitability on sales.
  • The institution holds a significant 45.0% stake in the company, which may provide stability and governance oversight.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily skewed towards a single institutional investor, which could lead to governance risks if their interests diverge from minority shareholders. The low presence of diverse institutional investors may also limit checks and balances.

Recommendation

Investors should approach DRI with caution, considering the elevated risk of earnings manipulation. It is advisable to conduct further due diligence on financial reporting practices and monitor for any changes in the ownership structure or governance.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
4.31
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.53
Negative
Composite
41
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-6.2%
Volatility
36.6%
Max Drawdown
-47.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
5.75P/E
P/B1.30
P/S1.33
ROE24.7%
ROA18.9%
EPS2167.66
BVPS9580.35
Gross Margin38.3%
Net Margin23.2%
D/E0.35
Current Ratio1.85
Rev Growth45.3%
Profit Growth45.5%
EV/EBITDA4.15
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
73.2M
Charter Capital
732.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DRI — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Đắk Lắk
Inst
45.0%
32.9 trieu
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Triển vọng Bảo Việt
Inst
0.7%
500.000
Quỹ Đầu tư Trái phiếu Bảo Việt
Inst
0.7%
500.000
Nguyễn Thị Minh Thuận
Indiv
0.6%
431.692
Văn Đức Lư
Indiv
0.3%
196.779
Bùi Quang Ninh
Indiv
0.2%
150.000
Nguyễn Kim Hòa
Indiv
0.2%
124.196
Nguyễn Độ
Indiv
0.1%
112.511
Nguyễn Viết Tượng
Indiv
0.1%
100.000
Board & Management
Bùi Quang Ninh0.2%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Kim Hoa0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Viết Tượng0.1%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Hải
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Minh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Thanh Tân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thạc Hoành
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thanh Cường
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Văn Thảo
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thanh Cần
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Trần Giang
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Top connections
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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