NO1

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Tâp đoàn 911

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Công nghiệp nặngCT

6.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

8.158

Current

6.000

Gap

+36.0%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→32.89B

Fair EV/EBITDA→5.0x

Years of data→5

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

32.89B

Fair EV/EBITDA

5.0x

Net Debt

-31.33B

Equity Value

8.158

Years of data→5

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NO1

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.11

Low Risk

DSRI

1.608

GMI

0.712

AQI

0.913

SGI

1.343

DEPI

1.924

SGAI

1.600

TATA

-0.250

LVGI

1.440

The Beneish M-Score of -3.113 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the high DSRI of 1.6077 and low earnings quality score of 64.4 suggest potential concerns regarding revenue recognition and accrual quality.

Red Flags

DSRI of 1.6077 indicates significant growth in receivables relative to sales, which may suggest aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Earnings quality score of 64.4/100, particularly low eq_accrual score of 20.0/100, indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability.

Positive Signals

Cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation, which is a positive sign for operational efficiency.
The GMI of 0.7120 suggests that gross margins are stable, which is a positive indicator for profitability.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are predominantly individuals, with the largest holding at 23.9%, indicating a potential lack of institutional oversight. This concentrated ownership may lead to governance risks and influence over corporate decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor the company's revenue recognition practices and assess the sustainability of earnings. Consider a cautious approach, focusing on cash flow metrics and governance structures before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.04

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.83

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-17.2%

Volatility

20.9%

Max Drawdown

-28.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.19P/E

P/B0.46

P/S0.13

ROE5.6%

ROA2.6%

EPS738.80

BVPS13188.57

Gross Margin9.3%

Net Margin1.6%

D/E1.49

Current Ratio1.48

Rev Growth34.3%

Profit Growth-1.7%

EV/EBITDA2.84

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

24.0M

Charter Capital

240.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Công nghiệp nặng

Sub-industry

Máy công nghiệp

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NO1 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

nguyen-thi-hai

Indiv

23.9%

5.7 trieu

Lưu Đình Tuấn

Indiv

20.8%

5.0 trieu

Nguyễn Xuân Thành

Indiv

9.8%

2.4 trieu

Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd.

Inst

6.1%

1.5 trieu

Nguyễn Mạnh Hải

Indiv

5.6%

1.4 trieu

Lưu Thị Tính

Indiv

3.3%

786.250

Nguyễn Văn Chinh

Indiv

3.0%

721.500

Bùi Việt Bắc

Indiv

2.8%

660.000

Nguyễn Thị Thơm

Indiv

2.5%

598.000

Nguyễn Đức Hải

Indiv

1.0%

230.000

Nguyễn Thị Thơ

Indiv

0.9%

215.000

Phạm Đình Thoan

Indiv

0.8%

185.000

Phạm Duy Tình

Indiv

0.2%

43.000

Nghiêm Đức Thuấn

Indiv

0.1%

32.500

Top connections

VTQ23.9%PPI23.9%FOC23.9%XDH23.9%DRI23.9%VDG23.9%BRR23.9%NAW23.9%DIC10.6%ACM9.8%DZM9.8%BHK9.8%

Computed 12/04/2026