GEL

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Hạ tầng GELEX

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

34.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

18.801

Current

34.800

Gap

-46.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

40.48%

Kd(1-t)

5.47%

D/(D+E)

59.52%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.84%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

31.911

50%DCF Value

5.690

Blended Intrinsic

18.801

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.76

Low Risk

DSRI

0.771

GMI

0.957

AQI

0.947

SGI

1.126

DEPI

0.953

SGAI

0.949

TATA

-0.023

LVGI

1.121

GEL exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.7647, well below the manipulation threshold, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. The earnings quality score of 74.6 suggests a generally strong performance, particularly in cash conversion, although revenue recognition remains a concern.

Red Flags

Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Earnings quality score of 74.6/100, with a cash conversion score of 100.0/100, reflects strong operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership of 70.2% by Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Gelex suggests a stable control structure, but the lack of diverse individual shareholders may limit accountability.

Recommendation

Monitor revenue recognition practices closely due to the 0.0/100 revenue quality score, while considering investment given the strong cash conversion and overall earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.33

Distress Zone

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

59.33P/E

P/B2.96

P/S1.98

ROE5.1%

ROA1.2%

EPS605.96

BVPS12138.23

Gross Margin30.3%

Net Margin3.3%

D/E1.47

Current Ratio1.68

Rev Growth12.9%

Profit Growth-11.4%

EV/EBITDA8.23

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

890.0M

Charter Capital

8900.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GEL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Gelex

Inst

70.2%

624.9 trieu

Công ty TNHH Phát Điện Gelex

Inst

1.8%

14.6 trieu

Top connections

GEE75.9%EIB70.2%SEA70.2%ABT2 links

Computed 12/04/2026