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Cyclicals sector

GEE

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Điện lực Gelex
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Điện tử & Thiết bị điệnCT
172.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
61.508
Current
172.600
Gap
-64.4%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA1989.95B
Fair EV/EBITDA13.5x
Years of data5
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
1989.95B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
13.5x
-
Net Debt
4301.95B
=
Equity Value
61.508
Years of data5

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — GEE

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

34
Weak
Accrual Quality
23
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
30
Revenue Quality
37

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.96
High Risk
DSRI
1.571
GMI
0.898
AQI
0.567
SGI
1.205
DEPI
0.743
SGAI
1.120
TATA
0.237
LVGI
1.056

GEE exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as reflected by a Beneish M-Score of -0.9582, which is above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 33.6/100, particularly low cash conversion metrics, raises additional concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.9582 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 33.6/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100, suggests significant issues in converting earnings to actual cash flow.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which could imply effective collection processes.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Gelex holding 75.9%, which may limit minority shareholder influence and raise concerns about governance practices.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and operational performance, before considering any investment in GEE.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
9.81
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.75
Excellent
Composite
43
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+245.4%
Volatility
73.2%
Max Drawdown
-41.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
19.93P/E
P/B8.07
P/S2.54
ROE45.0%
ROA22.2%
EPS8854.43
BVPS21884.31
Gross Margin16.1%
Net Margin12.7%
D/E0.95
Current Ratio1.81
Rev Growth20.2%
Profit Growth104.0%
EV/EBITDA20.91
Div Yield1.7%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
366.0M
Charter Capital
3660.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Điện tử & Thiết bị điện
Sub-industry
Thiết bị điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for GEE — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Gelex
Inst
75.9%
278.0 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Máy tính - Truyền thông - Điều khiển 3C
Inst
4.9%
17.9 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Cơ điện Trần Phú
Inst
4.7%
14.1 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Gvi
Inst
2.5%
7.5 trieu
Lê Bá Thọ
Indiv
0.2%
720.000
Nguyễn Văn Tuấn
Indiv
0.2%
720.000
Nguyễn Trọng Trung
Indiv
0.2%
648.000
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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