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Utilities sector

LKW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Long Khánh
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
35.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
44.811
Current
35.000
Gap
+28.0%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend6.84%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS2.000
Payout ratio37.7%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
2.000
Base Growth
6.84%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
44.811
Value Decomposition
25%
75%
Explicit period (25%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — LKW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

53
Fair
Accrual Quality
88
Cash Conversion
61
Receivables
49
Margin Stability
65
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.69
Low Risk
DSRI
0.895
GMI
1.114
AQI
0.220
SGI
1.051
DEPI
1.250
SGAI
0.972
TATA
0.029
LVGI
1.229

LKW exhibits several concerning indicators, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.6912, well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting potential earnings manipulation. While the earnings quality score of 52.7 indicates some stability, the revenue quality score of 0.0 raises significant concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.6912 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 suggests severe issues in revenue recognition, which could indicate aggressive accounting practices.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings quality score of 52.7/100, particularly with an accrual score of 88.3/100, indicates some level of financial stability.
  • DSRI of 0.8951 suggests that the company is managing its receivables effectively relative to sales.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 51.0% of shares, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on LKW, especially regarding revenue recognition practices. Monitoring future earnings reports and any changes in ownership structure will be crucial.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
5.17
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.47
Positive
Composite
60
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+21.2%
Volatility
19.5%
Max Drawdown
-24.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.29P/E
P/B1.06
P/S1.91
ROE14.3%
ROA12.4%
EPS4962.45
BVPS34045.14
Gross Margin50.2%
Net Margin26.2%
D/E0.17
Current Ratio2.90
Rev Growth5.1%
Profit Growth-11.7%
EV/EBITDA5.51
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
2.5M
Charter Capital
25.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for LKW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Đồng Nai
Inst
51.0%
1.3 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Hiệp
Indiv
16.8%
419.600
Liêu Nguyễn Việt Hà
Indiv
6.4%
160.800
Nguyễn Thị Hoàng Diệp
Indiv
5.9%
147.000
Công ty Cổ phần Sonadezi An Bình
Inst
3.9%
98.000
Trần Hoàng Anh Phương
Indiv
2.0%
50.000
Nguyễn Văn Bính
Indiv
0.8%
20.000
nguyen-anh-tuan
Indiv
0.3%
6.636
Lê Văn Thới
Indiv
0.2%
4.081
Board & Management
Trần Hoàng Anh Phương2.0%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Văn Anh
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Cao Hà
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Trường An
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đoàn Thị Vi Vân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Quang Minh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Hòa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Vĩnh
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Châu
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Thái Văn Sơn
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hương
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Đào Quý Tính
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
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