SZC

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Sonadezi Châu Đức

Bất động sảnCT

29.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

13.255

Current

29.500

Gap

-55.1%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

37.75%

Kd(1-t)

6.39%

D/(D+E)

62.25%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend5.15%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

18.972

60%DCF Value

9.444

Blended Intrinsic

13.255

Value Decomposition

32%

68%

Explicit period (32%)Terminal value (68%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SZC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.49

Moderate

DSRI

0.659

GMI

0.969

AQI

1.126

SGI

1.261

DEPI

0.918

SGAI

1.122

TATA

0.013

LVGI

0.977

The Beneish M-Score of -2.4873 indicates no immediate signs of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal concerns, particularly with a low cash conversion score of 54.7, suggesting potential issues with cash flow relative to reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 71.3/100 indicates moderate quality, with a concerning eq_revenue score of 0.0/100, suggesting possible revenue recognition issues.
The SGI of 1.2610 indicates that sales growth is outpacing overall economic growth, which could raise questions about sustainability.

Positive Signals

A DSRI of 0.6586 suggests that the company's inventory is well managed relative to sales, which is a positive indicator.
The eq_accrual score of 94.7/100 indicates strong accrual management, suggesting that reported earnings are backed by actual economic activity.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top three institutional shareholders holding 67.4% of the company. This concentration may lead to governance risks, as minority shareholders could have limited influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and revenue recognition practices, given the low cash conversion and revenue quality scores. Consider a cautious approach to investment until further clarity on operational sustainability is achieved.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.22

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-1.07

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-19.6%

Volatility

38.4%

Max Drawdown

-37.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

15.40P/E

P/B1.66

P/S4.84

ROE10.9%

ROA4.2%

EPS1915.71

BVPS17795.22

Gross Margin51.0%

Net Margin31.4%

D/E1.55

Current Ratio1.73

Rev Growth25.8%

Profit Growth15.5%

EV/EBITDA9.10

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

180.0M

Charter Capital

1799.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SZC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Khu Công nghiệp

Inst

46.8%

84.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Cơ điện Lạnh

Inst

10.5%

10.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Sonadezi Long Thành

Inst

10.1%

18.1 trieu

Phạm Quốc Chí

Indiv

0.8%

1.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Cảng Đồng Nai

Inst

0.7%

1.3 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Kinh Doanh Nhà Đồng Nai

Inst

0.4%

810.000

Phạm Xuân Bách

Indiv

0.2%

215.000

Công ty CP Xây Dựng Đồng Nai

Inst

0.2%

375.000

nguyen-thi-hanh

Indiv

0.1%

150.000

Trương Thanh Hiệp

Indiv

0.1%

100.000

Board & Management

Phạm Xuân Bách0.2%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Hoa

Giám đốc Tài chính

Nguyễn Thị Thu Vân

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Văn Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Trung Chiến

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Kim Hòa

Kế toán trưởng

Lưu Thị Thúy Vân

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Anh Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phan Kim Hồng

Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Trịnh Thị Hoa

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trương Viết Hoàng Sơn

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Lương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Hào Hiệp

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đinh Ngọc Thuận

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

SZE64.0%DNW64.0%TBC60.4%D2D57.9%SZL52.7%NTW52.4%LKW51.0%SZG46.8%SZB4 links DND2 links SDN46.8%SDV3 links

Computed 12/04/2026