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Real Estate sector

LSG

Real Estate
Công ty Cổ phần Bất động sản Sài Gòn Vi na
Bất động sảnCT
33.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
6.443
Current
33.500
Gap
-80.8%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
44.71%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.21%
x
D/(D+E)
55.29%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
14.693
60%DCF Value
943
Blended Intrinsic
6.443
Value Decomposition
33%
67%
Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — LSG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

48
Weak
Accrual Quality
83
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-0.72
High Risk
DSRI
0.117
GMI
0.552
AQI
1.336
SGI
3.605
DEPI
0.630
SGAI
0.277
TATA
0.057
LVGI
1.008

LSG exhibits a moderate risk profile with a Beneish M-Score of -0.7248, indicating no immediate signs of earnings manipulation. However, the high SGI of 3.6053 raises concerns about aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.

Red Flags
  • SGI of 3.6053 indicates aggressive revenue growth that may not be supported by cash flows.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 56.2/100 suggests potential issues with earnings sustainability, particularly with an eq_cash_conv of 0.0/100.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -0.7248 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration of institutional investors, which can provide stability, but the presence of individual shareholders may introduce volatility and influence on management decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should monitor LSG's revenue growth closely, particularly given the high SGI, and consider a deeper analysis of cash flow sustainability before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.06
Grey Zone
Sharpe
1.11
Excellent
Composite
47
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+88.2%
Volatility
48.1%
Max Drawdown
-42.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
194.32P/E
P/B3.07
P/S404.51
ROE1.6%
ROA0.7%
EPS185.50
BVPS11754.69
Gross Margin45.5%
Net Margin208.2%
D/E1.00
Current Ratio12.27
Rev Growth134.2%
Profit Growth511.1%
EV/EBITDA-339.72
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
90.0M
Charter Capital
900.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for LSG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công Ty Cổ Phần Địa Ốc Đại Á
Inst
13.6%
12.2 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Quản Lý Và Phát Triển Bất Động Sản Conasi
Inst
5.0%
4.5 trieu
Trương Kim Duyên
Indiv
5.0%
4.5 trieu
Trần Thị Minh Tâm
Indiv
4.8%
4.3 trieu
Trần Thành Nhơn
Indiv
4.7%
4.2 trieu
Bùi Hữu Tài
Indiv
4.4%
3.9 trieu
Nguyễn Quang Hiện
Indiv
0.3%
291.735
Top connections
Computed 12/04/2026
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