VNF

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vinafreight

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

15.400

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

13.316

Current

15.400

Gap

-13.5%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

65.34%

Kd(1-t)

5.21%

D/(D+E)

34.66%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.03%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

14.200

50%DCF Value

12.431

Blended Intrinsic

13.316

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VNF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.98

Moderate

DSRI

1.101

GMI

1.531

AQI

1.045

SGI

0.935

DEPI

0.271

SGAI

0.820

TATA

0.051

LVGI

1.057

VNF exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -1.9778, which is below the manipulation threshold. The low earnings quality score of 24.2/100, particularly the abysmal receivables and revenue metrics, raises significant red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.9778 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 24.2/100, with 0.0/100 for receivables and revenue, suggests severe issues with revenue recognition and cash flow.
DSRI of 1.1013 indicates a potential increase in receivables relative to sales, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

SGI of 0.9346 indicates that sales growth is slowing, which may reflect a more conservative approach to revenue recognition.
Ownership concentration with top shareholders holding 61.1% suggests stability in governance, potentially mitigating risks of abrupt management changes.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership among institutional investors (85.9% combined) may lead to a lack of oversight and accountability, increasing the risk of management decisions that do not align with minority shareholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor VNF's financial disclosures and earnings quality metrics. Consider a thorough due diligence process before making investment decisions, focusing on cash flow and revenue recognition practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

3.37

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.24

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+21.7%

Volatility

28.6%

Max Drawdown

-25.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.72P/E

P/B0.74

P/S0.27

ROE9.7%

ROA6.1%

EPS1852.78

BVPS19293.34

Gross Margin6.6%

Net Margin3.5%

D/E0.58

Current Ratio1.66

Rev Growth-6.9%

Profit Growth-1.9%

EV/EBITDA4.27

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

31.7M

Charter Capital

317.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ vận tải

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VNF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Transimex

Inst

61.1%

19.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Quản Lý Và Phát Triển Bất Động Sản Conasi

Inst

13.1%

4.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Giao nhận Kho vận Ngoại thương Việt Nam

Inst

10.9%

3.4 trieu

The Vendome Group Limited

Inst

3.8%

212.500

nguyen-bich-lan

Indiv

1.4%

120.375

Công Ty TNHH Quảng Cáo Mắt Vàng

Inst

1.0%

54.900

Công ty Cổ phần Giao nhận Vận tải Miền Trung

Inst

0.6%

148.500

Phạm Minh Hoàng

Indiv

0.3%

15.750

Lê Thị Thu Hà

Indiv

0.2%

13.740

Bùi Minh Tuấn

Indiv

0.2%

54.600

trương minh long

Indiv

0.2%

15.000

Bùi Tuấn Ngọc

Indiv

0.2%

49.584

Nguyễn Hồng Sơn

Indiv

0.1%

27.400

Lê Thị Ngọc Anh

Indiv

0.1%

33.704

Lê Duy Hiệp

Indiv

0.1%

30.160

Board & Management

Nguyễn Bích Lân1.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hồng Sơn0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Ngọc Anh0.1%

Kế toán trưởng/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Huy Diệu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Chu Việt Cường

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Anh Minh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phan Phương Tuyền

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Lê Quang Huy

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Ngọc Nhiên

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hồng Kim Chi

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Văn Hùng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Hoàng Như Uyên

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Duy Hiệp

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

TOT4 links TJC61.1%CLX61.1%SPV2 links VMT3 links VNT3 links VNL2 links HAH61.1%TDF15.7%BMD15.6%TMS2 links VPR13.9%

Computed 12/04/2026