TED

Construction

Tổng Công ty Tư vấn Thiết kế Giao thông Vận tải - CTCP

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

58.600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

217.654

Current

58.600

Gap

+271.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

27.71%

Kd(1-t)

6.31%

D/(D+E)

72.29%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend7.10%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

77.287

50%DCF Value

358.021

Blended Intrinsic

217.654

Value Decomposition

34%

66%

Explicit period (34%)Terminal value (66%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TED

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.97

Low Risk

DSRI

0.959

GMI

0.986

AQI

0.598

SGI

1.318

DEPI

0.930

SGAI

1.014

TATA

-0.114

LVGI

1.060

The Beneish M-Score of -2.9675 indicates that TED is not likely to be manipulating earnings, as it falls well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGI of 1.3185 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable, raising concerns about future earnings quality.

Red Flags

SGI of 1.3185 indicates aggressive revenue growth, which may not be sustainable.
Earnings Quality Score of 74.1/100 is decent, but the eq_revenue score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Cash conversion metrics are strong with an eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100, indicating effective cash generation from earnings.
Low DSRI of 0.9595 suggests that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include a significant institutional investor (35.0%) and a large individual investor (30.1%), which may provide stability. However, the concentration of ownership raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest and governance issues.

Recommendation

Monitor revenue growth closely due to the elevated SGI, and consider further analysis of revenue recognition practices. Engage with management to clarify strategies for sustaining growth while maintaining earnings quality.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.04

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.36

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+24.2%

Volatility

116.6%

Max Drawdown

-41.7%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

8.21P/E

P/B2.36

P/S0.41

ROE31.0%

ROA5.8%

EPS7135.50

BVPS24814.53

Gross Margin24.7%

Net Margin5.0%

D/E3.28

Current Ratio1.24

Rev Growth31.9%

Profit Growth40.3%

EV/EBITDA2.32

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

12.5M

Charter Capital

125.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TED — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Oriental Consultans Global

Inst

35.0%

4.4 trieu

Quỹ Đầu Tư Hạ Tầng Red One

Indiv

30.1%

3.8 trieu

Phạm Hữu Sơn

Indiv

8.5%

1.1 trieu

Phạm Minh Hằng

Indiv

1.6%

205.300

Đỗ Minh Dũng

Indiv

1.4%

166.940

Đào Ngọc Vinh

Indiv

1.0%

125.000

Nguyễn Công Tâm

Indiv

0.7%

90.000

Tăng Thị Thu Hiền

Indiv

0.3%

36.000

Trương Minh Sơn

Indiv

0.2%

30.000

Trần Quốc Bảo

Indiv

0.2%

27.800

Võ Hoàng Anh

Indiv

0.2%

25.400

Đoàn Văn Thắng

Indiv

0.2%

20.000

Top connections

HAC4.7%UMC2.4%TOP1.2%

Computed 12/04/2026