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Consumer sector

TOP

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Phân phối Top One
Bán lẻCT
900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
3.201
Current
900
Gap
+255.7%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTBán lẻConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Bán lẻ" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Cash Flow
BVPS
6.402
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value
6.402

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TOP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

37
Weak
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
20
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2021

-6.65
Low Risk
DSRI
0.004
GMI
-6.584
AQI
1.040
SGI
1.248
DEPI
0.925
SGAI
0.554
TATA
0.030
LVGI
0.069

The Beneish M-Score of -6.6521 indicates a strong likelihood of earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78. Coupled with a low earnings quality score of 52.0, particularly concerning revenue and margin metrics, this stock presents substantial risks for investors.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -6.6521 indicates likely earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings quality metrics show a revenue score of 0.0/100 and a margin score of 0.0/100, suggesting severe issues in revenue recognition and profitability.
Positive Signals
  • The DSRI of 0.0042 indicates a very low level of receivables relative to sales, which may suggest conservative revenue recognition practices.
  • An accrual score of 88.2/100 indicates a relatively strong ability to convert earnings into cash.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is highly concentrated with the top shareholder holding 25.0%, which could lead to potential governance issues and lack of accountability in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider avoiding this stock due to high risks of earnings manipulation and poor earnings quality. A thorough review of financial statements and corporate governance practices is recommended before any investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
91.39
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.32
Negative
Composite
53
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.0%
Volatility
88.3%
Max Drawdown
-47.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-140.67P/E
P/B0.14
P/S322.02
ROE-0.1%
ROA-0.1%
EPS-6.40
BVPS6402.43
Gross Margin3.4%
Net Margin-228.9%
D/E0.00
Current Ratio26.21
Rev Growth229.2%
Profit Growth-198.6%
EV/EBITDA-37.31
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
25.4M
Charter Capital
253.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Bán lẻ
Sub-industry
Bán lẻ phức hợp
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TOP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Trần Hồng Tài
Indiv
25.0%
6.3 trieu
Đinh Văn Tạo
Indiv
4.3%
1.1 trieu
Vũ Đình Phúc
Indiv
4.1%
1.0 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Quỳnh
Indiv
3.0%
117.000
Hoàng Thế Nam
Indiv
2.8%
108.000
Nguyễn Hữu Khá
Indiv
2.4%
614.900
Nguyễn Ngọc Dưỡng
Indiv
2.4%
607.200
Trương Văn Hưng
Indiv
1.2%
300.000
Đoàn Văn Thắng
Indiv
1.2%
300.000
Nguyễn Tiến Thành
Indiv
1.1%
266.400
Trần Thị Tâm
Indiv
0.5%
120.000
Triệu Tiến Duẩn
Indiv
0.4%
100.000
Vũ Thị Vân Anh
Indiv
0.3%
76.600
Ngô Văn Hanh
Indiv
0.2%
56.200
Phan Thành Trung
Indiv
0.2%
8.000
Bùi Thị Thanh Thảo
Indiv
0.1%
5.500
Vũ Thị Lan Hương
Indiv
0.1%
5.000
Board & Management
Đỗ Xuân Long
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Nguyễn Hữu Khá
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thế Trịnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Phạm Cao Cường
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Nhị Hương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Văn Hưng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Thị Thanh Xuân
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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