UMC

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Công trình đô thị Nam Định

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

8.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

15.695

Current

8.700

Gap

+80.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

80.50%

Kd(1-t)

6.16%

D/(D+E)

19.50%

WACC

11.02%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

10.754

50%DCF Value

20.636

Blended Intrinsic

15.695

Value Decomposition

39%

61%

Explicit period (39%)Terminal value (61%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — UMC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-0.18

High Risk

DSRI

0.835

GMI

1.009

AQI

6.609

SGI

0.990

DEPI

1.293

SGAI

0.965

TATA

0.020

LVGI

0.840

UMC exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -0.1822, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well above the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant concerns, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition, which could signal underlying operational issues.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 63.2/100 indicates moderate quality, especially concerning cash conversion at 35.3/100, suggesting potential liquidity issues.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about the reliability of reported revenues, which could indicate aggressive accounting practices.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -0.1822 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, reflecting a potentially stable earnings reporting environment.
Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables, which is a positive sign for cash flow management.

Ownership Risk

The majority ownership by the state (51.0%) may provide stability but also raises concerns about potential political influence and lack of shareholder activism. The concentration of ownership among a few individuals could limit minority shareholder protections.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor UMC's cash conversion and revenue recognition practices, as these are critical areas of concern. It is advisable to conduct further due diligence on operational performance and governance structures before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

4.32

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.00

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+0.0%

Volatility

0.1%

Max Drawdown

0.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

9.08P/E

P/B0.78

P/S0.24

ROE8.2%

ROA6.8%

EPS1216.06

BVPS11185.04

Gross Margin15.5%

Net Margin3.4%

D/E0.24

Current Ratio3.74

Rev Growth10.8%

Profit Growth17.0%

EV/EBITDA1.41

Div Yield8.1%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

1.8M

Charter Capital

18.4B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for UMC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Nam Định

State

51.0%

939.297

Đinh Thị Hằng

Indiv

8.4%

155.454

Đinh Văn Hóa

Indiv

7.4%

135.800

Đỗ Minh Dũng

Indiv

2.4%

44.300

Trần Xuân Sánh

Indiv

2.0%

36.766

Phạm Thị Hải Quỳnh

Indiv

1.1%

20.500

Nguyễn Ngọc Hưng

Indiv

1.1%

20.200

Nguyễn Văn Toản

Indiv

1.1%

19.800

Phạm Thái Sơn

Indiv

0.9%

16.200

Lê Chí Hiền

Indiv

0.9%

16.200

Trần Việt Dũng

Indiv

0.8%

15.500

Trần Thị Trung Hậu

Indiv

0.3%

6.000

Đặng Thị Thu

Indiv

0.3%

5.300

nguyen-thu-hien

Indiv

0.3%

5.200

Board & Management

Đinh Thị Hằng8.4%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Minh Dũng2.4%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Hải Quỳnh1.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng

Phạm Thái Sơn0.9%

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Chí Hiền0.9%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Giám đốc

Trần Việt Dũng0.8%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Trung Hậu0.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Thị Thu0.3%

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Thu Hiền0.3%

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

MND51.0%NDW2 links V1210.7%TTF7.4%HAC4.7%DZM4.6%CET3.2%SJM3.0%TED2.4%DBC1.1%THG1.1%HUT1.1%

Computed 12/04/2026