Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 7.300
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 8.189
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 2 Dec 2026
- Model reliability
- Very Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Construction and industrial firms have lumpy, project-based earnings that swing with the building cycle. Order books fill and empty, so a single year's profit is a poor guide to normal earning power. This model values them on through-cycle EBITDA: a 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) times a fair EV/EBITDA multiple, less net debt. It mirrors the cyclical model.
Technical details
Project-based revenue is lumpy and asset-backed. EV/EBITDA is capital-structure-neutral and undistorted by depreciation policy, and mid-cycle EBITDA normalizes across the building cycle so a firm isn't overvalued at a peak or undervalued at a trough.
Computes 7-year median EBITDA and a fair EV/EBITDA from the firm's own history blended toward the construction-sector median. Net debt is taken directly from the balance sheet (short- plus long-term borrowings minus cash and short-term investments, which hold most term deposits). Fair Value = (Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA) - Net Debt.
Construction & materials and industrial goods & services companies with lumpy, project-based revenue and asset-backed balance sheets.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.1424th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 23.4%93rd pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
TTL's Beneish M-Score is -0.7032, placing it at the 90th percentile versus Vietnamese peers and rising by +1.85 year-over-year; this indicates its accounting measures are more aggressive than most peers and that the trajectory has moved materially. Earnings-quality metrics are weak: an overall Earnings Quality Score of 18.8/100 with extremely poor cash conversion (0.0/100), receivables quality (0.2/100) and revenue quality (2.3/100). The Altman Z-Score is 0.84 (in the distress zone) while the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 (neutral). Statutory loss tests on the published statements are not met.
- Beneish M-Score -0.7032 (90th percentile vs VN peers; YoY change +1.85) — measures an eight-variable forensic score designed to flag earnings manipulation; high peer percentile and a large positive YoY change indicate movement toward more aggressive accounting relative to Vietnamese peers.
- Days Sales Receivable Index (DSRI) = 1.2989 — measures growth in receivables relative to sales; >1 suggests receivables have grown faster than sales, consistent with revenue recognition or collection issues.
- AQI (asset quality index) = 4.0922 — measures non-current asset growth and other potentially illiquid assets; elevated AQI indicates expansion of assets that can mask expense recognition or be reclassified to inflate profits.
- TATA (total accruals to total assets) = 0.0661 — measures accruals size; positive accruals indicate earnings not matched by cash flows (consistent with low cash conversion).
- Earnings Quality Score 18.8/100 with Cash conversion 0.0/100 and Receivables quality 0.2/100 — measures show profits are not being converted into cash and receivables/prepayments look weak or risky.
- Cash conversion (3-year operating cash flow / net profit) = 0.14 (24th percentile) — indicates operating cash flow is only 14% of reported net profit over three years, a sign of poor convertibility of earnings into cash.
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 23.4% of total assets (92nd percentile) — a high share of assets tied up in prepayments, loans receivable or other long-term receivables; this is unusually large versus peers and raises recoverability and classification concerns.
- Altman Z-Score = 0.84 (distress zone) — measures distance to bankruptcy; this low score indicates financial stress metrics on the published accounts.
- GMI (gross margin index) = 0.7263 — measures deterioration in gross margins; a value <1 suggests gross margins improved year-over-year, which is a stabilizing signal for core profitability.
- DEPI (depreciation index) = 0.8252 — <1 indicates reported depreciation expense has increased relative to prior period (or asset base), reducing the chance that depreciation is being depressed to inflate profits.
- SGAI (sales, general & admin index) = 0.8436 — <1 implies SGA expenses did not grow faster than sales, which can be a conservative signal for operating expense recognition.
- LVGI (leverage index) = 1.0479 — modest increase in leverage; not an extreme spike in the leverage metric within the Beneish inputs.
- No accumulated losses, owner's equity (exclude minority interest) positive, and 0 years of parent-company net loss up to FY2025 — the company is profitable on the parent level and has not triggered statutory loss thresholds in the published statements.
Ownership is concentrated: two institutions hold a combined 70.8% (Tng 50.5% and TTL HOLDINGS 20.3%), with an individual (Phạm Tuấn Vũ) at 10.3% and another institutional investor at 7.2%. Director-deal activity for 2025-10-30 to 2026-10-30 shows registrations (not executed trades): three sale registrations (two registrants; 6,200 shares, two registrations without a volume) and two purchase registrations (one registrant; two without a volume).
- Compare the 2025 schedule/note for "trade and other receivables" with the related-party note and the long-term receivables line to identify the composition of the 23.4% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle.
- Reconcile the consolidated statement of cash flows (operating cash flows) for FY2023–FY2025 with consolidated net profit to reproduce the 3‑year cash conversion ratio (operating cash flow / net profit = 0.14) and identify major non‑cash adjustments or timing items.
- Review the fixed-asset and depreciation notes for FY2025 to confirm depreciation policies, useful lives and movements that explain DEPI = 0.8252 and to check for reclassifications or impairments.
- Inspect the related-party transactions note and the loans/advances to (or from) related parties for unusually large movements or balances that could explain the elevated AQI (4.0922) and receivables outside the trade cycle.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 0.56
- P/S
- 0.18
- ROE
- 8.8%
- ROA
- 1.6%
- EPS
- 1.201
- BVPS
- 14.174
- Gross Margin
- 10.5%
- Net Margin
- 3.6%
- D/E
- 1.62
- Current Ratio
- 1.15
- Rev Growth
- +10.8%
- Profit Growth
- +741.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.34
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 41.9M
- Charter Capital
- 419B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Xây dựng và Vật liệu
- Sub-industry
- Xây dựng
- Company Type
- CT