TTL

Construction

Tổng Công ty Thăng Long - Công ty Cổ phần

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

7.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

7.078

Current

7.900

Gap

-10.4%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Distressed Valuation

Negative Enterprise Value

BVPS

14.156

Discount

50%

Floor Value

14.156

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TTL

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.70

High Risk

DSRI

1.299

GMI

0.726

AQI

4.092

SGI

1.108

DEPI

0.825

SGAI

0.844

TATA

0.066

LVGI

1.046

TTL exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly indicated by its Beneish M-Score of -0.7025, which is above the manipulation threshold. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 38.7/100, driven by poor cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises further concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -0.7025 indicates potential manipulation, as it is above the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 38.7/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100, suggests significant issues in converting earnings into cash.
Revenue quality score of 2.3/100 indicates a high risk of revenue recognition issues.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of accounts receivable, suggesting that the company is effectively collecting its debts.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 50.5%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. This concentration could hinder minority shareholder rights and transparency.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor TTL's financial disclosures and cash flow statements. It may be prudent to wait for improved earnings quality metrics before considering an investment.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

0.84

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.04

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+6.7%

Volatility

71.6%

Max Drawdown

-52.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.59P/E

P/B0.56

P/S0.18

ROE8.8%

ROA1.6%

EPS1199.01

BVPS14155.63

Gross Margin10.5%

Net Margin2.7%

D/E4.24

Current Ratio1.15

Rev Growth10.8%

Profit Growth741.9%

EV/EBITDA4.58

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

41.9M

Charter Capital

419.1B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TTL — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Xây Dựng Tng

Inst

50.5%

21.2 trieu

Phạm Tuấn Vũ

Indiv

25.1%

10.5 trieu

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bảo hiểm Sài Gòn - Hà Nội

Inst

7.2%

3.0 trieu

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Sài Gòn – Hà Nội

Inst

7.2%

3.0 trieu

Phạm Thị Nhài

Indiv

3.2%

1.3 trieu

Board & Management

Bùi Quang Tùng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Xuân Hải

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phan Thị Thu Thảo

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Đặng Ngọc Tuấn Hiệp

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Thanh Vân

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Thị Phương Lan

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Đức Trung

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Ủy viên Phụ trách Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Ủy viên Phụ trách Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Việt Hà

Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Văn Lương

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hải Vinh

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Kinh doanh

Top connections

VC953.1%VIF7.2%BHI7.2%HHP2.0%

Computed 12/04/2026