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Cyclicals sector

VIF

Cyclicals
Tổng Công ty Lâm nghiệp Việt Nam - Công ty Cổ phần
Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Lâm nghiệp và GiấyCT
16.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
11.564
Current
16.000
Gap
-27.7%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTTài nguyên Cơ bảnCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA32.23B
Fair EV/EBITDA123.7x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
32.23B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
123.7x
-
Net Debt
-59.77B
=
Equity Value
11.564
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VIF

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

63
Fair
Accrual Quality
84
Cash Conversion
26
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.28
Moderate
DSRI
0.813
GMI
0.900
AQI
1.106
SGI
1.189
DEPI
1.140
SGAI
0.816
TATA
0.040
LVGI
1.070

VIF's Beneish M-Score of -2.2828 suggests a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 63.0 indicates potential concerns, particularly in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 63.0 is below the industry average, indicating potential issues with earnings sustainability.
  • Cash conversion metric at 25.7/100 raises concerns about the company's ability to convert earnings into actual cash flow.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.2828 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Receivables and margin metrics both at 100.0/100 suggest strong performance in these areas.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated with state entities holding 51.0%, which may limit minority shareholder influence and raise concerns about governance practices.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and revenue recognition practices, while considering the potential stability offered by state ownership.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
7.97
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.43
Negative
Composite
42
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-6.8%
Volatility
46.6%
Max Drawdown
-19.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
17.30P/E
P/B1.11
P/S2.93
ROE6.5%
ROA5.8%
EPS918.83
BVPS14288.93
Gross Margin17.5%
Net Margin16.9%
D/E0.10
Current Ratio7.64
Rev Growth19.0%
Profit Growth-10.2%
EV/EBITDA95.23
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
350.0M
Charter Capital
3500.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Tài nguyên Cơ bản
Industry (ICB L3)
Lâm nghiệp và Giấy
Sub-industry
Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VIF — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Quản Lý Vốn Nhà Nước Tại Doanh Nghiệp
State
51.0%
178.5 trieu
Bộ Tài Chính
State
51.0%
178.5 trieu
Ủy Ban Quản Lý Vốn Nhà Nước Tại Doanh Nghiệp
State
51.0%
178.5 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn T&T
Inst
40.0%
140.0 trieu
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bảo hiểm Sài Gòn - Hà Nội
Inst
4.7%
16.5 trieu
Board & Management
Mai Quý Quảng
Kế toán trưởng
Hồ Thị Thanh Huyền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Khương Lâm
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Ngô Thị Thúy Mai
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Tấn Cường
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đào Quốc Hoàn
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Trung Kiên
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phí Mạnh Cường
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Văn Hường
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Mạnh Hùng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đỗ Ngọc Khanh
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Quốc Khánh
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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