VMS

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Hàng Hải

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

54.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

26.770

Current

54.900

Gap

-51.2%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

63.36%

Kd(1-t)

6.41%

D/(D+E)

36.64%

WACC

10.08%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.31%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

28.916

50%DCF Value

24.623

Blended Intrinsic

26.770

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VMS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.12

Moderate

DSRI

0.892

GMI

1.000

AQI

0.944

SGI

1.436

DEPI

1.565

SGAI

0.959

TATA

0.009

LVGI

1.068

VMS exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.1214, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGI of 1.4357 and low revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raise concerns about growth sustainability and revenue recognition practices.

Red Flags

SGI of 1.4357 indicates aggressive growth that may not be supported by actual revenue generation.
Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 suggests potential issues with revenue recognition, which could impact financial reliability.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.1214 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Earnings Quality Score of 67.4/100, particularly high accrual score of 96.4/100, indicates strong cash flow management.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with state and institutional shareholders holding a combined 102.1%, indicating potential governance risks and lack of minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and growth sustainability, considering a cautious approach until further clarity on operational performance is established.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

3.38

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.97

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+195.9%

Volatility

115.0%

Max Drawdown

-37.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

36.07P/E

P/B3.19

P/S1.60

ROE8.9%

ROA5.5%

EPS1516.53

BVPS17173.18

Gross Margin12.5%

Net Margin4.4%

D/E0.64

Current Ratio4.28

Rev Growth43.4%

Profit Growth-11.2%

EV/EBITDA31.14

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

9.0M

Charter Capital

90.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VMS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Vận Tải Container Vimc

Inst

51.0%

4.6 trieu

Công ty Vận Tải Biển Container Vimc - Chi Nhánh Tổng Công ty Hàng Hải Việt Nam - Ctcp

State

51.0%

4.6 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu tư TM

Inst

16.1%

1.4 trieu

Đào Hồng Chương

Indiv

5.5%

499.300

Vũ Trường Giang

Indiv

0.5%

48.210

Đặng Thúy Định

Indiv

0.5%

45.000

nguyen-cao-thang

Indiv

0.4%

35.000

nguyen-ha-thanh

Indiv

0.4%

33.750

Đậu Công Lưu

Indiv

0.4%

33.750

Vũ Xuân Trường

Indiv

0.3%

24.525

nguyen-chi-kien

Indiv

0.2%

17.500

Board & Management

Vũ Trường Giang0.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Chí Kiên0.2%

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Thanh Thủy

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Thân Trọng Thảo

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Thị Hằng

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Trần Thị Thu Huyền

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Đỗ Lan Hương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đoàn Ngọc Tú

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Dương Thu Hiền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Hoàng Thanh Hải

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

MAC32.4%HAH16.1%VSC16.1%VIP16.1%THD4.1%ONE2.4%

Computed 12/04/2026