VIP

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Vận tải Xăng dầu VIPCO

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

12.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

19.523

Current

12.000

Gap

+62.7%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

90.66%

Kd(1-t)

6.34%

D/(D+E)

9.34%

WACC

11.65%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

14.278

50%DCF Value

24.768

Blended Intrinsic

19.523

Value Decomposition

41%

59%

Explicit period (41%)Terminal value (59%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — VIP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.88

Low Risk

DSRI

0.904

GMI

1.016

AQI

0.694

SGI

1.066

DEPI

0.863

SGAI

1.154

TATA

-0.032

LVGI

1.189

The Beneish M-Score of -2.8776 indicates that VIP is not likely to be manipulating earnings, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 81.8/100 reveals some areas of concern, particularly in revenue recognition, which could pose risks in the context of Vietnamese accounting practices.

Red Flags

The revenue quality score is 0.0/100, indicating significant issues with revenue recognition that could lead to future adjustments or restatements.

Positive Signals

The earnings quality metrics show strong cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100), suggesting effective operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The concentration of ownership, with the largest shareholder holding 51.0%, raises potential governance risks and may limit minority shareholders' influence over corporate decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of ownership concentration on governance. A thorough review of financial statements and management disclosures is advised before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.65

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.60

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-5.6%

Volatility

20.7%

Max Drawdown

-26.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

9.65P/E

P/B0.65

P/S1.36

ROE6.7%

ROA6.1%

EPS1253.25

BVPS18682.30

Gross Margin25.5%

Net Margin14.1%

D/E0.10

Current Ratio10.96

Rev Growth6.6%

Profit Growth-7.6%

EV/EBITDA4.76

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

68.5M

Charter Capital

684.7B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Vận tải Thủy

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for VIP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Vận Tải Thủy Petrolimex

Inst

51.0%

34.9 trieu

Phan Minh Tuấn

Indiv

10.2%

6.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Bảo Hiểm Petrolimex

Inst

5.0%

3.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Macstar

Inst

5.0%

3.4 trieu

Halley Sicav - Halley Asian Prosperity

Inst

5.0%

3.2 trieu

Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Bảo hiểm Petrolimex

Inst

4.8%

3.3 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu tư TM

Inst

4.2%

2.9 trieu

Deutsche Asset Management (Asia) Limited

Inst

2.9%

1.8 trieu

tmam vietnam equity mother fund

Inst

2.5%

1.7 trieu

Ngân hàng Deutsche Aktiengesellschaft

Inst

1.8%

1.1 trieu

KITMC Worldwide Vietnam RSP Balanced Fund

Inst

1.6%

1.1 trieu

KIM Vietnam Growth Equity Fund

Inst

0.7%

460.900

Board & Management

Vũ Quang Khánh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Đức Bình

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Đào Ngọc Trung

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Đình Tuấn

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đình Thanh

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Vũ Đình Hiển

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Trung Tấn

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Vũ Ngọc Vinh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thế Long

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Thư ký Hội đồng Quản Trị

Nguyễn Quang Minh

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hảo

Kế toán trưởng

Phí Tuyết Thanh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hữu Thành

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Tiến Long

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Lệnh Công

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

CCP63.9%VTO4 links PJT51.2%PTS2 links MAC32.4%VMS16.1%TPS15.0%CAN10.2%VCG2 links PCC10.0%TCL7.3%AAA6.6%

Computed 12/04/2026