THD

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Thaiholdings

Bất động sảnCT

31.500

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.203

Current

31.500

Gap

-80.3%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

96.72%

Kd(1-t)

6.08%

D/(D+E)

3.28%

WACC

13.35%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

14.335

60%DCF Value

783

Blended Intrinsic

6.203

Value Decomposition

37%

63%

Explicit period (37%)Terminal value (63%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — THD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

100

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.17

Moderate

DSRI

1.048

GMI

1.046

AQI

0.999

SGI

1.005

DEPI

1.475

SGAI

0.823

TATA

0.023

LVGI

0.858

The Beneish M-Score of -2.1662 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 61.0/100, particularly low cash conversion and revenue metrics, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 61.0/100 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability, particularly low cash conversion (0.0/100) and revenue quality (22.3/100).
The DEPI ratio of 1.4751 suggests that the company may be facing declining profitability, which could impact future earnings.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.1662 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, indicating some level of financial integrity.
High receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is fragmented with no single shareholder holding a significant controlling stake, which may reduce the risk of unilateral decision-making but could also lead to governance challenges.

Recommendation

Monitor the company's cash conversion and revenue quality closely, as these are critical for assessing future performance. Consider a cautious investment approach until there are improvements in earnings quality metrics.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

55.76

Safe Zone

Sharpe

-0.79

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-16.3%

Volatility

22.0%

Max Drawdown

-36.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

119.49P/E

P/B2.75

P/S12.39

ROE2.3%

ROA2.3%

EPS263.63

BVPS11467.72

Gross Margin2.3%

Net Margin10.4%

D/E0.03

Current Ratio14.88

Rev Growth1.0%

Profit Growth20.5%

EV/EBITDA-12023.61

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

385.0M

Charter Capital

3850.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Tư Vấn, Định giá, Môi giới Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for THD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Văn Hà

Indiv

5.0%

17.4 trieu

Dương Văn Nhất

Indiv

4.9%

2.7 trieu

Phạm Thu Hằng

Indiv

4.2%

14.8 trieu

nguyen-chi-kien

Indiv

4.1%

15.6 trieu

Ngô Quyết Tiến

Indiv

4.0%

15.4 trieu

Bùi Thị Thanh Nhàn

Indiv

3.9%

14.9 trieu

Trịnh Văn Thiệm

Indiv

3.5%

12.1 trieu

Đặng Văn Thắng

Indiv

2.3%

8.9 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Vụ

Indiv

1.0%

539.000

Trịnh Văn Thiệm

Indiv

0.2%

539.000

Nguyễn Thị Phượng

Indiv

0.2%

539.000

Vũ Ngọc Định

Indiv

0.2%

592.900

Board & Management

Phạm Thu Hằng4.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Chí Kiên4.1%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trịnh Văn Thiệm3.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đặng Văn Thắng2.3%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Ngọc Định0.2%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trịnh Văn Thiềm0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Quang Vinh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Khương Duy

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Văn Thuyết

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Lê Quang

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hà

Kế toán trưởng

Phan Mạnh Hùng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Trần Thị Thanh Giang

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Dư Thị Hải Yến

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đỗ Mai Phương

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Nguyễn Văn Khoa

Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Dũng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

SDP12.5%CDG12.4%PLP6.7%PEN5.0%HMS5.0%TRS5.0%DKC5.0%LO55.0%NAW5.0%TLD4.3%BXH4.2%VMS4.1%

Computed 12/04/2026