XMD

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Xuân Mai - Đạo Tú

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

5.900

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

29.824

Current

5.900

Gap

+405.5%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

46.99%

Kd(1-t)

7.72%

D/(D+E)

53.01%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

8.426

50%DCF Value

51.221

Blended Intrinsic

29.824

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — XMD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-3.36

Low Risk

DSRI

0.668

GMI

0.724

AQI

0.877

SGI

1.360

DEPI

0.911

SGAI

0.815

TATA

-0.162

LVGI

0.884

XMD exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -3.3605, indicating a low likelihood of manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 55.8 suggests some underlying issues with revenue recognition and margins, which could pose risks in financial reporting.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -3.3605 indicates a low likelihood of manipulation, but the SGI of 1.3601 suggests aggressive growth that may not be sustainable.
Earnings Quality Score of 55.8/100, particularly low scores in eq_margin (0.0/100) and eq_revenue (0.0/100), indicate potential issues with revenue recognition and profitability.

Positive Signals

Strong cash conversion metrics with eq_cash_conv at 100.0/100, indicating effective cash generation from operations.
Low DSRI of 0.6679 suggests that the company is managing its inventory effectively relative to sales.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership (86.4%) by Công ty cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng Xuân Mai raises concerns about potential governance issues and lack of minority shareholder influence.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor XMD's financial reporting and operational performance, particularly in revenue recognition. Consider a cautious approach to investment until clearer signals of sustainable growth and profitability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

8/9

Strong

Z-Score

2.42

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.34

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

-31.8%

Volatility

119.1%

Max Drawdown

-51.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

7.58P/E

P/B0.57

P/S0.18

ROE7.9%

ROA3.9%

EPS804.22

BVPS10621.51

Gross Margin7.4%

Net Margin2.3%

D/E0.88

Current Ratio1.69

Rev Growth36.0%

Profit Growth242.6%

EV/EBITDA3.69

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

4.0M

Charter Capital

40.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for XMD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng Xuân Mai

Inst

86.4%

3.5 trieu

Lê Thị Linh

Indiv

1.3%

51.100

Phạm Quang Tuyến

Indiv

0.8%

32.900

Lê Mạnh Hùng

Indiv

0.3%

12.000

Trần Thanh Hải

Indiv

0.3%

10.400

Nguyễn Ngọc Phượng

Indiv

0.2%

9.100

Board & Management

Trần Thanh Hải0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc

Nguyễn Ngọc Phượng0.2%

Kế toán trưởng

Trần Duy Tình

Phó Giám đốc

Nguyễn Cao Thắng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Đức Thảo

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lê Thị Ngọc Diệp

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Đặng Việt Đức

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Đức Ứng

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Top connections

ND286.4%CMT18.0%MAC6.6%TLH5.5%SDU4.8%TTE4.4%LGC2.0%CMI1.8%

Computed 12/04/2026