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Utilities sector

ND2

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển điện Miền Bắc 2
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Sản xuất & Phân phối ĐiệnCT
36.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
High
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
49.597
Current
36.500
Gap
+35.9%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend3.41%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS2.500
Payout ratio77.6%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
2.500
Base Growth
3.41%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
49.597
Value Decomposition
26%
75%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (75%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ND2

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

64
Fair
Accrual Quality
85
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
36
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.06
Moderate
DSRI
1.282
GMI
0.949
AQI
1.476
SGI
1.120
DEPI
0.924
SGAI
0.823
TATA
-0.038
LVGI
0.865

The Beneish M-Score of -2.0602 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and profit margins, raising concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 64.2/100 indicates moderate quality, with a concerning eq_margin score of 36.1/100, suggesting potential issues in profitability.
  • The eq_revenue score of 0.0/100 highlights severe deficiencies in revenue recognition practices, which could indicate aggressive accounting or revenue manipulation.
Positive Signals
  • The eq_cash_conv and eq_receivables scores of 100.0/100 suggest strong cash conversion and effective receivables management, indicating operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu và Xây dựng Việt Nam holding 51.1% and Toyota Tsusho Corporation holding 35.0%. This concentration may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor earnings reports and revenue recognition practices, particularly given the low eq_revenue score. Consider a cautious approach to investment until there are improvements in earnings quality and transparency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.09
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.29
Negative
Composite
56
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-2.4%
Volatility
32.5%
Max Drawdown
-15.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
8.06P/E
P/B1.86
P/S4.23
ROE24.2%
ROA14.4%
EPS4285.04
BVPS18569.58
Gross Margin69.1%
Net Margin52.4%
D/E0.60
Current Ratio1.03
Rev Growth12.0%
Profit Growth32.4%
EV/EBITDA6.02
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
50.0M
Charter Capital
500.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Sub-industry
Sản xuất & Phân phối Điện
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ND2 — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu và Xây dựng Việt Nam
Inst
51.1%
25.5 trieu
Toyota Tsusho Corporation
Inst
35.0%
17.5 trieu
Trịnh Hoàng Duy
Indiv
14.4%
6.0 trieu
Nguyễn Đức Lưu
Indiv
7.2%
3.0 trieu
Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Việt Nam
Inst
5.2%
2.2 trieu
Công ty Cổ phần VIMECO
Inst
2.0%
838.700
Phan Huy Chí
Indiv
1.7%
700.000
Đinh Tuấn Anh
Indiv
0.6%
300.000
Quỹ Đầu tư Trái phiếu Bảo Việt
Inst
0.5%
251.674
Quỹ Đầu tư Cổ phiếu Triển vọng Bảo Việt
Inst
0.5%
251.674
Trương Chí Thành
Indiv
0.2%
99.000
Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Công trình ngầm
Inst
0.2%
89.000
Công ty cổ phần Đầu tư và Xây dựng Xuân Mai
Inst
0.1%
55.550
Board & Management
ĐINH TUẤN ANH0.6%
Kế toán trưởng
Ứng Hồng Vận
Tổng Giám đốc
Lại Thị Kim Huệ
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Ngô Mạnh Cường
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đỗ Vương Cường
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Vũ Văn Mạnh
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Quỳnh Trang
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Mạnh Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Văn Mậu
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Katsuhito Miyajima
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Yusuke Takahashi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Vũ Đức Thịnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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