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Consumer sector

AGX

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Thực phẩm Nông sản Xuất khẩu Sài Gòn
Bán lẻ/Phân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩmCT
205.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
317.516
Current
205.500
Gap
+54.5%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTBán lẻConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Bán lẻ" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
88.46%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.70%
x
D/(D+E)
11.54%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.02%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF186.21B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
186.21B
Growth Rate
4.02%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
317.516
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — AGX

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

60
Fair
Accrual Quality
64
Cash Conversion
55
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
60
Revenue Quality
12

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-1.92
Moderate
DSRI
0.821
GMI
0.711
AQI
0.641
SGI
1.711
DEPI
0.984
SGAI
1.048
TATA
0.090
LVGI
1.071

AGX exhibits several concerning financial metrics that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.9185, which is below the threshold indicating possible manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 60.4 suggests a moderate level of earnings reliability, although the low revenue quality score of 12.0 raises significant concerns.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.9185 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Low revenue quality score of 12.0/100 suggests significant issues with revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Strong receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are all institutional investors, which may provide stability; however, the lack of individual ownership raises concerns about alignment with minority shareholders' interests.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence on AGX, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices and the sustainability of earnings, before making any investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
7.69
Safe Zone
Sharpe
1.05
Excellent
Composite
74
Strong
Price Risk
Momentum
+126.4%
Volatility
95.7%
Max Drawdown
-30.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
4.93P/E
P/B1.60
P/S1.08
ROE38.3%
ROA34.0%
EPS31903.09
BVPS98390.52
Gross Margin30.1%
Net Margin22.0%
D/E0.13
Current Ratio7.64
Rev Growth70.9%
Profit Growth147.4%
EV/EBITDA3.67
Div Yield1.3%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
10.8M
Charter Capital
108.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bán lẻ
Industry (ICB L3)
Phân phối thực phẩm & dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Phân phối thực phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for AGX — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty TNHH Phát Triển VF
Inst
24.5%
2.7 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại An Long
Inst
23.0%
2.5 trieu
Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Sg
Inst
19.1%
2.1 trieu
Tổng Công ty Thương Mại Sài Gòn
Inst
18.3%
2.0 trieu
Board & Management
Ngô Bình Long
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Võ Thị Mỹ
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Xuân Hán
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Võ Thị Huyền Lan
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Thu Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Cao Xuân Cường
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Kế toán trưởng
Trịnh Thùy Linh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Hải Long
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Khổng Văn Minh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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