TMS

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Transimex

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

39.100

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

10.322

Current

39.100

Gap

-73.6%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

61.45%

Kd(1-t)

6.29%

D/(D+E)

38.55%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.85%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

27.473

50%DCF Value

-6.830

Blended Intrinsic

10.322

Value Decomposition

35%

65%

Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TMS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Good

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.30

Moderate

DSRI

1.217

GMI

0.892

AQI

0.913

SGI

1.045

DEPI

1.071

SGAI

0.945

TATA

0.004

LVGI

1.014

TMS exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.3015, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 70.3 suggests reasonable earnings integrity, albeit with significant weaknesses in revenue recognition.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.3015, indicating potential earnings manipulation risk as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score shows a critical weakness in revenue recognition at 0.0/100, which raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Positive Signals

Strong accrual quality score of 98.5/100 indicates that earnings are primarily derived from genuine business activities rather than accounting adjustments.
Institutional ownership is significant, with the top three shareholders holding a combined 59.1%, suggesting a level of stability and oversight.

Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top four shareholders holding over 70% of shares, could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, particularly if decisions favor major stakeholders over minority investors.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TMS's revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of its concentrated ownership. A cautious approach is advised, potentially waiting for clearer signals of financial stability before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.14

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.12

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-0.7%

Volatility

11.1%

Max Drawdown

-14.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

18.77P/E

P/B1.59

P/S1.90

ROE8.6%

ROA4.2%

EPS2083.25

BVPS24584.96

Gross Margin17.6%

Net Margin10.1%

D/E0.64

Current Ratio1.30

Rev Growth4.4%

Profit Growth74.2%

EV/EBITDA14.26

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

172.7M

Charter Capital

1727.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Kho bãi, hậu cần và bảo dưỡng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TMS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ Phần Logistics Quốc Tế Ryobi Việt Nam

Inst

21.0%

35.5 trieu

Công Ty Cổ Phần Prosper Logistics

Inst

18.6%

32.2 trieu

Bùi Minh Tuấn

Indiv

14.5%

25.0 trieu

Công ty TNHH Dịch Vụ Hàng Không Véc Tơ Quốc Tế

Inst

13.5%

22.9 trieu

Công Ty CP Dịch Vụ Văn Hóa Việt

Inst

10.3%

17.4 trieu

Công ty TNHH Đầu Tư Và Thương Mại Thiên Hải

Inst

7.5%

13.0 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư New Asia

Inst

7.3%

12.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Vi Na

Inst

7.2%

12.4 trieu

Halley Sicav - Halley Asian Prosperity

Inst

5.5%

1.3 trieu

Jwd Asia Holding Private Limited

Inst

4.9%

8.5 trieu

Vietnam Holding Ltd

Inst

4.8%

1.7 trieu

Tổng Công ty Thương Mại Sài Gòn

Inst

3.1%

4.1 trieu

Vietnam Dragon Fund Limited

Inst

1.8%

423.150

Vietnam Ventures Limited

Inst

1.3%

300.000

Trần Hồng Đởm

Indiv

1.2%

289.440

Wareham Group Limited

Inst

1.0%

231.000

Huỳnh Minh Thảo

Indiv

0.9%

318.567

Kamm Investment Holdings, Inc

Inst

0.7%

165.000

Công ty Cổ phần VINAPRINT

Inst

0.7%

1.2 trieu

Bùi Tuấn Ngọc

Indiv

0.6%

991.372

nguyen-chi-duc

Indiv

0.5%

814.598

Vũ Chinh

Indiv

0.4%

753.827

Lê Duy Hiệp

Indiv

0.4%

740.874

Công ty Cổ Phần Dịch Vụ Hàng Hải

Inst

0.3%

203.352

Công ty Cổ Phần Hàng Hải Macs

Inst

0.2%

381.564

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán SSI

Inst

0.2%

88.923

Hoàng Phong Giao

Indiv

0.2%

43.076

Nguyễn Thị Bích Lân

Indiv

0.2%

97.539

Phan Thanh Nghĩa

Indiv

0.1%

33.618

nguyen-bich-lan

Indiv

0.1%

223.031

Nguyễn Thị Đầm

Indiv

0.1%

23.951

Board & Management

Bùi Minh Tuấn14.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Bùi Tuấn Ngọc0.6%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Chí Đức0.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Chinh0.5%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Duy Hiệp0.4%

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Hồng Kim Chi0.1%

Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Hồng Sơn

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Văn Hùng

Giám đốc Tài chính

Lê Phúc Tùng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Quốc Thiên Kim

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Bảo Trung

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Charvanin Bunditkitsada

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Masafumi Inoue

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phan Phương Tuyền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Trí Hùng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Lê Thị Ngọc Anh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Kim Hậu

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

VSN67.8%VPR5 links KOS35.4%APT30.0%PNG4 links FUESSV5025.6%HCT24.7%ONW24.5%SPV4 links AGX18.3%DTE18.0%HTC17.0%

Computed 12/04/2026