AVG

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Phân Bón Quốc Tế Âu Việt

Hóa chấtCT

10.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

16.459

Current

10.000

Gap

+64.6%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hóa chất→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→45.66B

Fair EV/EBITDA→10.3x

Years of data→4

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

45.66B

Fair EV/EBITDA

10.3x

Net Debt

177.83B

Equity Value

16.459

Years of data→4

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — AVG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.13

Moderate

DSRI

1.237

GMI

0.883

AQI

1.157

SGI

0.980

DEPI

0.979

SGAI

1.169

TATA

0.046

LVGI

1.101

AVG exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of -2.1255, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the company's earnings quality score of 34.0/100 suggests significant weaknesses in cash conversion and receivables management.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -2.1255 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
Earnings Quality Score of 34.0/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100 and receivables at 0.0/100, highlights severe issues in cash flow management.

Positive Signals

DSRI of 1.2369 indicates that the company is managing its inventory relative to sales, which is a positive sign in terms of operational efficiency.
SGI of 0.9800 suggests that the company's sales growth is stable, potentially indicating a sustainable business model.

Ownership Risk

The significant ownership concentration, with Nguyễn Hoàng Luân holding 38.2%, raises concerns about governance and potential conflicts of interest, particularly in decision-making processes.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor AVG's financial disclosures and operational performance. A thorough review of cash flow management practices is recommended before making any investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

3/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.29

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-1.55

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-52.8%

Volatility

27.7%

Max Drawdown

-56.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

10.91P/E

P/B0.73

P/S0.26

ROE7.0%

ROA3.7%

EPS911.32

BVPS13562.07

Gross Margin5.2%

Net Margin2.4%

D/E0.93

Current Ratio1.14

Rev Growth-2.0%

Profit Growth26.9%

EV/EBITDA10.27

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

17.7M

Charter Capital

176.8B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hóa chất

Industry (ICB L3)

Hóa chất

Sub-industry

Sản phẩm hóa dầu, Nông dược & Hóa chất khác

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for AVG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Nguyễn Hoàng Luân

Indiv

38.2%

6.8 trieu

Võ Văn Phước Quệ

Indiv

11.4%

2.0 trieu

nguyen-hoang-phuong

Indiv

0.7%

130.000

Võ Huỳnh Trang

Indiv

0.4%

65.000

Biện Thị Chuyên

Indiv

0.1%

26.000

Top connections

UXC15.1%PND7.5%PAS5.0%NBB4.9%PIV3.9%

Computed 12/04/2026