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Utilities sector

PND

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Xăng dầu Dầu khí Nam Định
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
6.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
6.128
Current
6.900
Gap
-11.2%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS325
Payout ratio70.7%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
325
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
6.128
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PND

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

40
Weak
Accrual Quality
90
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
10

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.07
Moderate
DSRI
1.068
GMI
0.975
AQI
1.368
SGI
1.104
DEPI
0.942
SGAI
1.033
TATA
0.025
LVGI
0.937

PND exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, as reflected by a Beneish M-Score of -2.0651, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. The earnings quality score of 40.0/100, particularly low cash conversion metrics, raises further concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.0651 indicates potential earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 40.0/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, suggests significant issues in converting earnings to cash.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of accounts receivable, which is a positive sign for liquidity.
Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, with Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam holding 56.8%, may lead to governance issues and limit minority shareholder influence, increasing the risk of decisions that may not align with broader shareholder interests.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on PND, particularly focusing on cash flow sustainability and management practices, before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
25.52
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.18
Negative
Composite
24
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-39.1%
Volatility
144.3%
Max Drawdown
-56.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
36.41P/E
P/B0.85
P/S0.01
ROE2.4%
ROA0.8%
EPS156.55
BVPS6693.14
Gross Margin3.0%
Net Margin0.0%
D/E1.79
Current Ratio0.85
Rev Growth10.3%
Profit Growth-33.0%
EV/EBITDA6.46
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
6.7M
Charter Capital
66.7B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PND — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam
Inst
56.8%
3.8 trieu
Nguyễn Ngọc Phúc
Indiv
21.8%
1.4 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Xăng Dầu Việt Nam
Inst
14.5%
969.200
Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý Quỹ Leadvisors
Inst
9.0%
600.000
Công ty Cổ phần Thương Mại Vận Tải Trung Dũng
Inst
7.5%
500.000
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hiền
Indiv
7.5%
500.000
Hoàng Nguyên Thanh
Indiv
0.2%
12.480
Cao Anh Tuấn
Indiv
0.1%
7.287
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thị Thu Hiền7.5%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Cao Anh Tuấn0.1%
Phó Giám đốc
Phan Trung Kiên
Phó Giám đốc
Trần Đức Hùng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Tôn Quốc Bình
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Nguyễn Tuấn Tú
Kế toán trưởng
Trần Xuân Hạnh
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Đỗ Thu Hường
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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