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Construction sector

CHC

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Cẩm Hà
Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT
5.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
3.669
Current
5.600
Gap
-34.5%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTXây dựng và Vật liệuConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
69.23%
+
Kd(1-t)
5.67%
x
D/(D+E)
30.77%
=
WACC
10.19%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend2.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
8.359
50%DCF Value
-1.021
Blended Intrinsic
3.669
Value Decomposition
36%
65%
Explicit period (36%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CHC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

30
Weak
Accrual Quality
90
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
40
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.65
Low Risk
DSRI
0.859
GMI
0.962
AQI
0.703
SGI
1.103
DEPI
1.012
SGAI
1.025
TATA
0.026
LVGI
1.347

The Beneish M-Score of -2.654 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 30.3/100, particularly the zero scores in cash conversion and revenue quality, raises concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 30.3/100, indicating poor earnings quality.
  • Cash conversion score of 0.0/100 suggests significant issues in converting earnings to cash.
  • Revenue quality score of 0.0/100 raises concerns about the legitimacy of revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.654 suggests a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • DSRI of 0.8591 indicates that inventory levels are well managed relative to sales.
Ownership Risk

With 51.0% ownership by a state-owned enterprise, there is a potential risk of political influence impacting corporate governance and decision-making. However, this also provides stability and access to resources.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and revenue recognition practices, given the low earnings quality scores. It may be prudent to adopt a cautious approach until improvements in cash conversion and revenue legitimacy are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.05
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.37
Positive
Composite
43
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+58.3%
Volatility
180.9%
Max Drawdown
-61.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
18.80P/E
P/B0.44
P/S0.29
ROE2.4%
ROA1.5%
EPS297.87
BVPS12617.74
Gross Margin24.1%
Net Margin1.6%
D/E0.71
Current Ratio1.64
Rev Growth10.1%
Profit Growth69.0%
EV/EBITDA7.34
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
6.7M
Charter Capital
67.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CHC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Lâm nghiệp Việt Nam - Công ty Cổ phần
State
51.0%
3.4 trieu
Dương Phú Minh Hoàng
Indiv
4.1%
273.115
Tống Thị Nguyên
Indiv
3.7%
247.962
Nguyễn Thị Tranh
Indiv
0.9%
63.361
Nguyễn Thị Phương Loan
Indiv
0.7%
50.000
nguyen-chi-dung
Indiv
0.7%
48.000
Trần Trung Huân
Indiv
0.6%
43.336
Phạm Văn Chín
Indiv
0.2%
13.851
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Hà
Indiv
0.1%
10.000
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Bình
Indiv
0.1%
9.046
Nguyễn Đức Tiến
Indiv
0.1%
9.047
Trần Thị Kim Anh
Indiv
0.1%
3.400
Board & Management
Dương Phú Minh Hoàng4.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Tranh0.9%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Phương Loan0.7%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Chí Dũng0.7%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Trung Huân0.6%
Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Văn Chín0.2%
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Ngọc Hà0.1%
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Thủy
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Thị Hà
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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