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Construction sector

SVN

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Vexilla Việt Nam
Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT
1.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
415
Current
1.900
Gap
-78.1%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTXây dựng và Vật liệuConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
96.22%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.36%
x
D/(D+E)
3.78%
=
WACC
11.98%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.00%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
50%DCF Value
415
Blended Intrinsic
415
Value Decomposition
42%
58%
Explicit period (42%)Terminal value (58%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SVN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

10
Poor
Accrual Quality
41
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

4.47
High Risk
DSRI
8.246
GMI
1.786
AQI
0.488
SGI
0.342
DEPI
0.714
SGAI
3.263
TATA
0.173
LVGI
0.159

The forensic assessment of SVN indicates significant red flags, particularly a Beneish M-Score of 4.4696, which suggests a high likelihood of earnings manipulation. Coupled with a poor earnings quality score of 10.1/100, the financial integrity of the company is under serious scrutiny.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 4.4696 exceeds the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating potential earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 10.1/100 highlights severe issues with accruals and cash conversion, suggesting unreliable financial reporting.
  • DSRI of 8.2462 indicates a significant increase in receivables relative to sales, which can signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 28% of the shares, which may lead to governance issues and a lack of accountability in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider avoiding SVN until further transparency in financial reporting is established. A thorough review of the company's financial statements and governance practices is recommended.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
27.81
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-1.85
Negative
Composite
4
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-62.1%
Volatility
43.1%
Max Drawdown
-77.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
27.61P/E
P/B0.18
P/S1.36
ROE0.6%
ROA0.6%
EPS68.81
BVPS10691.76
Gross Margin0.9%
Net Margin4.9%
D/E0.01
Current Ratio104.08
Rev Growth-65.8%
Profit Growth213.0%
EV/EBITDA-21.81
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
21.0M
Charter Capital
210.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Industry (ICB L3)
Xây dựng và Vật liệu
Sub-industry
Xây dựng
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SVN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Năng lượng Việt Nam
Inst
28.0%
5.6 trieu
Lê Việt Hùng
Indiv
15.8%
3.3 trieu
Công ty cổ phần Đầu tư Xanh Việt Nam
Inst
4.9%
1.0 trieu
Đỗ Bảo Anh
Indiv
4.9%
1.0 trieu
Vũ Chí Công
Indiv
4.8%
1.0 trieu
Bùi Thị Xuân
Indiv
4.8%
1.0 trieu
Công ty TNHH Đầu tư Bảo Lộc Hà Việt
Inst
4.8%
1.0 trieu
Triệu Văn Hợi
Indiv
4.2%
891.000
trương huy tâm
Indiv
4.1%
869.000
Nguyễn Thị Hà
Indiv
4.0%
830.100
Nguyễn Thị Hiền
Indiv
3.3%
700.000
nguyen-sy-cuong
Indiv
3.0%
641.500
Lê Hoài Hưng
Indiv
1.9%
390.000
Nguyễn Đức Tiến
Indiv
1.4%
300.000
nguyen-thanh-tung
Indiv
1.0%
204.800
Phạm Văn Tuấn Anh
Indiv
0.9%
200.445
nguyen-viet-cuong
Indiv
0.9%
198.500
Board & Management
Lê Hoài Hưng1.9%
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Hồng Quang
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Callum Fraser
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Ngọc Thuyên
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thu Huyền
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Văn Chiến
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Quốc Hiền
Phó Giám đốc
Michael Marc Lee
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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