CMI

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần CMISTONE Việt Nam

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

600

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

429

Current

600

Gap

-28.5%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

100.00%

Kd(1-t)

0.00%

D/(D+E)

0.00%

WACC

12.20%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

6.595

50%DCF Value

-5.737

Blended Intrinsic

429

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CMI

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-1.97

Moderate

DSRI

2.306

GMI

-1.655

AQI

0.757

SGI

1.622

DEPI

0.960

SGAI

0.561

TATA

0.038

LVGI

0.978

The Beneish M-Score of -1.9683 indicates a potential for earnings manipulation, particularly given the high DSRI of 2.3057, which suggests aggressive revenue recognition practices. While the earnings quality score of 51.2 indicates some strengths, the low cash conversion and revenue metrics raise concerns about the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -1.9683 indicates potential earnings manipulation as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
DSRI of 2.3057 suggests aggressive revenue recognition, potentially inflating earnings.
Earnings quality metrics show a cash conversion score of only 40.0/100, indicating poor cash generation relative to reported earnings.

Positive Signals

Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of accounts receivable.
Accrual quality score of 84.8/100 suggests that a significant portion of earnings is backed by actual cash flows.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration of shares among a few key shareholders, which could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest, particularly with significant stakes held by individual investors.

Recommendation

Investors should conduct further due diligence on CMI, particularly focusing on cash flow generation and revenue recognition practices. Consider monitoring for any changes in ownership dynamics or governance practices that could impact financial transparency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

6/9

Neutral

Z-Score

-3.78

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-1.16

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-63.2%

Volatility

158.3%

Max Drawdown

-75.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

-0.55P/E

P/B0.00

P/S0.23

ROE16.8%

ROA-10.7%

EPS-1273.78

BVPS0.00

Gross Margin-6.0%

Net Margin-41.9%

D/E-2.32

Current Ratio0.27

Rev Growth34.4%

Profit Growth1.7%

EV/EBITDA70.07

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

15.0M

Charter Capital

160.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Vật liệu xây dựng & Nội thất

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CMI — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Xuất khẩu và Khai thác khoáng sản Việt Nam

Inst

11.9%

1.9 trieu

Lê Tuấn Điệp

Indiv

9.1%

1.4 trieu

Ngũ Thị Lam

Indiv

5.0%

794.800

Công ty Cổ phần Siêu Thị Thuốc Việt

Inst

3.1%

502.099

Trần Thanh Hiệp

Indiv

2.9%

460.200

Trần Thanh Hải

Indiv

1.8%

292.700

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán MB

Inst

1.7%

270.000

Trần Thanh Hữu

Indiv

0.9%

150.000

Phạm Uyên Nguyên

Indiv

0.7%

116.000

Công ty Cổ phần Cavico Xây dựng Nhân lực và Dịch vụ

Inst

0.4%

70.010

Nguyễn Văn Hùng

Indiv

0.2%

26.514

Đặng Minh Toàn

Indiv

0.1%

20.000

Board & Management

Ngũ Thị Lam5.0%

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thanh Hiệp2.9%

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Thanh Hữu0.9%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Uyên Nguyên0.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Văn Hùng0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Vương Huynh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Hữu Chung

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Hữu Trung

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Hiền

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán

Lê Văn Phương

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Lê Thị Hà

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

CMT18.0%AGP14.3%CTA13.6%LCM9.1%MIC9.1%TTE2 links DNP9.1%MAC6.6%THT5.0%HVA5.0%PSI4.9%STC4.6%

Computed 12/04/2026