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Consumer sector

AGP

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Dược phẩm AGIMEXPHARM
Y tế/Dược phẩmCT
38.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Medium
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
17.672
Current
38.100
Gap
-53.6%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTY tếConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Y tế" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
36.54%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.41%
x
D/(D+E)
63.46%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.99%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF55.43B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
55.43B
Growth Rate
5.99%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
17.672
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — AGP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

89
Good
Accrual Quality
75
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
66

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.51
Low Risk
DSRI
0.852
GMI
0.971
AQI
1.973
SGI
1.065
DEPI
0.860
SGAI
0.996
TATA
-0.063
LVGI
1.051

The Beneish M-Score of -2.5092 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, well below the threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 88.5/100 reflects strong cash conversion and receivables management, suggesting a solid financial foundation.

Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 88.5/100 indicates strong overall earnings quality.
  • Cash conversion and receivables metrics are at 100%, suggesting excellent operational efficiency.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is relatively concentrated, with the largest shareholder holding 30.2%. This could pose risks related to governance and decision-making, but it also indicates stability in control.

Recommendation

Given the low risk of manipulation and strong earnings quality, consider a cautious buy strategy, while monitoring any changes in ownership dynamics or market conditions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.45
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.23
Positive
Composite
58
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+8.9%
Volatility
32.3%
Max Drawdown
-15.9%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
19.57P/E
P/B2.24
P/S1.21
ROE12.2%
ROA4.2%
EPS1955.32
BVPS17073.68
Gross Margin30.3%
Net Margin6.2%
D/E2.00
Current Ratio0.98
Rev Growth6.1%
Profit Growth6.4%
EV/EBITDA10.50
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
30.6M
Charter Capital
306.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Y tế
Industry (ICB L3)
Dược phẩm
Sub-industry
Dược phẩm
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for AGP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Dược phẩm Imexpharm
Inst
30.2%
9.2 trieu
Phạm Uyên Nguyên
Indiv
14.3%
4.4 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Kha
Indiv
11.6%
3.5 trieu
Công ty Cổ Phần Liên Phát Vũng Tàu
Inst
7.2%
2.2 trieu
Phạm Thị Bích Thủy
Indiv
1.7%
515.345
Trương Thị Kim Loan
Indiv
1.4%
60.320
Huỳnh Hoàng Hà
Indiv
0.9%
249.509
Vũ Minh Tuấn
Indiv
0.6%
148.261
Lâm Trí Hiền
Indiv
0.6%
170.756
Lê Văn Mác
Indiv
0.5%
154.929
DƯƠNG ÁNH NGỌC
Indiv
0.3%
31.480
Trần Nguyễn Minh Hiền
Indiv
0.3%
88.172
Lâm Hoàng Anh
Indiv
0.3%
87.644
Nguyễn Thái Cường
Indiv
0.2%
64.380
Trần Thị Thanh Hằng
Indiv
0.1%
41.862
Board & Management
Phạm Uyên Nguyên14.3%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Kha11.6%
Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Thị Bích Thủy1.7%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Huỳnh Hoàng Hà0.9%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc Sản xuất
Lâm Trí Hiền0.6%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Vũ Minh Tuấn0.6%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Nguyễn Minh Hiền0.3%
Kế toán trưởng
Trần Thị Thanh Hằng0.1%
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Thùy Linh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Minh Ngọc
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thư ký Hội đồng Quản Trị
Nguyễn Quốc Định
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Đào
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Hồng Ngọc
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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