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Cyclicals sector

DRG

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Cao su Đắk Lắk
Hóa chấtCT
8.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
653.793
Current
8.600
Gap
+500.0%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTHóa chấtCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Hóa chất" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA186.07B
Fair EV/EBITDA7.5x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
186.07B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
7.5x
-
Net Debt
316.47B
=
Equity Value
653.793
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DRG

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

18
Poor
Accrual Quality
58
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

0.13
High Risk
DSRI
3.059
GMI
1.548
AQI
1.400
SGI
0.719
DEPI
1.128
SGAI
0.918
TATA
0.107
LVGI
1.033

The forensic analysis of DRG reveals significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 0.1312, which is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the company's earnings quality score of 17.5/100 highlights severe deficiencies in cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 0.1312 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly above the safe threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 17.5/100 suggests poor earnings quality, particularly with cash conversion and revenue recognition metrics scoring 0.0/100.
Ownership Risk

The overwhelming state ownership at 98.9% poses a risk of political influence and lack of accountability, which may hinder transparency and independent oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider conducting further due diligence on DRG, particularly focusing on cash flow and revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
4/9
Neutral
Z-Score
0.83
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.04
Negative
Composite
49
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-0.1%
Volatility
44.0%
Max Drawdown
-48.1%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
6.76P/E
P/B0.74
P/S1.55
ROE11.4%
ROA7.5%
EPS1257.53
BVPS11484.90
Gross Margin16.0%
Net Margin23.0%
D/E0.42
Current Ratio1.49
Rev Growth-28.1%
Profit Growth148.2%
EV/EBITDA11.18
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
1.7M
Charter Capital
1558.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hóa chất
Industry (ICB L3)
Hóa chất
Sub-industry
Nhựa, cao su & sợi
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DRG — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Đắk Lắk
State
98.9%
154.1 trieu
Board & Management
Bùi Quang Ninh
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Độ
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Cúc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thạc Hoành
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Phan Thanh Tân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Thảo
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Bích Thảo
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Văn Nam
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Trần Giang
Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Viết Tượng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Văn Định
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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