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Consumer sector

CFV

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Cà phê Thắng Lợi
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
20.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
24.440
Current
20.300
Gap
+20.4%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.800
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
10.10%
Ke
10.10%
x
E/(D+E)
58.06%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.16%
x
D/(D+E)
41.94%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF17.96B
Projection years10
4
Valuation
Base FCF
17.96B
Growth Rate
4.00%
WACC
10.00%
Terminal Growth
4.00%
DCF Value
24.440
Value Decomposition
43%
57%
Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CFV

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

6
Poor
Accrual Quality
0
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
30
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2017

9.85
High Risk
DSRI
15.227
GMI
0.525
AQI
1.136
SGI
0.561
DEPI
1.112
SGAI
1.582
TATA
0.016
LVGI
1.485

The forensic assessment of CFV indicates significant risks of financial manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 9.8497, well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. With a concerning Earnings Quality Score of 40.0/100, particularly low scores in revenue and margin quality, the financial integrity of CFV is in question.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 9.8497 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 40.0/100 reflects poor revenue recognition and margin quality, with 0.0/100 in eq_receivables and eq_revenue.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Phạm Thị Linh holding 53.4% and the state-owned Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Đắk Lắk holding 36.0%. This concentration may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider avoiding CFV until more transparent financial practices are adopted and earnings quality improves. A thorough review of financial statements and potential regulatory scrutiny is advised.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
1/9
Weak
Z-Score
2.46
Grey Zone
Sharpe
-0.10
Negative
Composite
32
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-3.1%
Volatility
121.3%
Max Drawdown
-57.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
14.30P/E
P/B1.26
P/S0.68
ROE9.2%
ROA6.0%
EPS1419.54
BVPS16116.27
Gross Margin10.3%
Net Margin4.7%
D/E0.72
Current Ratio2.03
Rev Growth29.7%
Profit Growth-61.8%
EV/EBITDA12.89
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
8.1M
Charter Capital
126.5B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Đồ uống & giải khát
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CFV — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Phạm Thị Linh
Indiv
53.4%
6.7 trieu
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Đắk Lắk
State
36.0%
4.6 trieu
Board & Management
Vũ Đình Nội
Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Mai
Kế toán trưởng
Đỗ Trọng Quân
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Hoàng Phúc
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Đỗ Hoàng Phương
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đoàn Đình Hồng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Đình Bộ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lưu Thị Thu Hiền
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hoàng Thị Thu Hà
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Quốc Độ
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Xuân Thụ
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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