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CPA

Công ty Cổ phần Cà phê Phước An

VietnamConsumerThực phẩm và đồ uốngBia và đồ uốngUPCOMCT
4.400
VND · Close 26 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−3.0%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
4.400
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
4.269

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Recent losses require review of cash-flow assumptions.

Also note

  • Historical growth has declined.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector “Thực phẩm và đồ uống” maps to the consumer group.
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Intrinsic = 70% x DCF Value + 30% x (Fair P/E x EPS)

A Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the cash a business generates after operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted to today's value using WACC. The DCF value is blended 70/30 with a value from the company's own historical P/E.

Technical details
Why this model

Consumer staples/retail generate steady, predictable free cash flows, making them ideal for DCF. The time value of money principle means a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. DCF captures this by discounting future cash flows at a rate reflecting the investment's risk (WACC).

How it works

Takes 3-year median FCF as the base. Estimates growth via ROIC x reinvestment rate (Damodaran framework), falling back to historical revenue growth. Projects 10 years with decay toward the sector's long-run growth rate. Discounts at CAPM-derived WACC. Blends 70% of the DCF value with 30% of a P/E value: the company's 5-year median P/E, held between 5x and 25x, times EPS.

Best for

Stable consumer businesses (food, beverage, retail, healthcare) with predictable, positive free cash flows.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
0.910
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.10%
Ke
11.10%
x
E/(D+E)
53.87%
+
Kd(1-t)
7.05%
x
D/(D+E)
46.13%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
historical blend4.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
Base FCF→2.20B
Projection years→10
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→4.400
Calibrated value vs last close→−3.0%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
4.269
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%
Growth rate4.00%growth method: historical blend
Base cash flow2.2 tỷone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth1.0%2.5%4.0%5.5%7.0%
8.0%4.4614.4614.4614.4614.461
9.0%4.4614.4614.4614.4614.461
10.0%3.5674.0124.2694.2694.269
11.0%3.4723.4723.4723.4723.567
12.0%N/AN/A2.4913.4723.472
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item20262025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2929425347657094169149186160261
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·543962317906669
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0000000000022
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·321621211612131217242444
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.70.40.40.10.20.90.70.40.31144
Net Inventories
·2122232219475464688010391160
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·2322232419475964688010391160
Other current assets
·0.090.090.100.60.70.50.20.30.245533846
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000058
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·65748585911071411892341681716367
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000.090.20.220000
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000.090.20.20.20000
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·57667684891041191261421571635557
Tangible fixed assets
·57657583891031181251411571635254
Intagible fixed assets
·0.60.70.70.80.91.01110000
Investment in properties
·6770000000000
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0000000000022
Investments in associate companies
·0000000000022
Other non-current assets
·0.30.40.60.70.912152828568
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·0.30.40.60.70.912152828568
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·93103127138138172211283404317357223328
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·626369654867179217303170209183284
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·622564484766178213293145175168277
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·34039324049143146164132134143196
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·43480.60.5110.60000
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·0.4385170.70.714102535166
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·035016000392535166
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·314158739010532661011471483944
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·314158739010532661011471483944
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·23623623623623623613613613638393944
Difference upon Assets Revaluation
·00000000010710700
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·0000000000.80.80.010
Other Reserves
·0000000000.40.400
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·−205−195−179−163−147−131−104−70−350000
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·93103127138138172211283404317357223328
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·000000.10.210.24900
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000000010000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·23623623623623623613613613638393944
◆vnvalue Research Note
Full equity analysis · PDF · Updated 30 Oct 2026

Dated original report: includes the model’s unadjusted figures; the website shows calibrated values.

Download

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
40
Weak
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
24
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
58
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
75th–90th
M −1.40 · 81st pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.79
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
1.583
GMI
3.567
AQI
0.945
SGI
0.790
DEPI
0.778
SGAI
0.331
TATA
−0.138
LVGI
1.150

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
0.7%30th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
0.87×
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
9Statutory test met
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them. The company trades on UPCoM, where these tests do not apply.

The accounting signals show elevated aggressive-accounting indicators versus Vietnamese peers (Beneish M‑Score -1.404; 81st percentile among VN peers) with a notable year‑over‑year deterioration (+2.79). Profitability and cash metrics are weak: Altman Z‑Score -1.74 (distress zone) and an Earnings‑Quality score of 39.7/100, driven by very poor receivables and revenue quality.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M‑Score -1.404 (81st percentile versus Vietnamese peers). The M‑Score measures statistical likelihood of earnings manipulation features; this company is in the top quintile of aggressive accounting signals among Vietnamese listed peers. The M‑Score moved up by +2.79 year‑over‑year, indicating a material shift in the accounting pattern over the last year.
  • DSRI (Days’ Sales in Receivables Index) = 1.5834. DSRI measures whether receivables are growing faster than sales (a value >1 suggests receivables growing disproportionately).
  • GMI (Gross Margin Index) = 3.5673. GMI >1 indicates gross margins deteriorated year over year (this is a strong deterioration signal here).
  • LVGI (Leverage Index) = 1.1503. LVGI >1 shows leverage increased relative to assets and sales, consistent with rising balance‑sheet risk.
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.1384. A negative TATA indicates large negative accruals (cash flows exceeding earnings) in the year measured; it is one of the Beneish components affecting the composite score.
  • Receivables quality = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 0.0/100 in the Earnings Quality breakdown. These scores indicate major weaknesses in how revenues and receivables appear to convert into reliable cash or meet quality tests used in the scoring.
  • Cash conversion (part of Earnings Quality) = 24.0/100. This low score shows poor conversion of accounting profit into operating cash flow.
  • Earnings pattern: net loss at the parent in 9 consecutive years up to FY2025 and the audited statements show losses in each of the latest 3 years (relevant to statutory loss tests).
  • Accumulated losses = 0.87x paid‑in capital. This shows cumulative losses are large relative to contributed capital (87% of paid‑in capital).
  • Altman Z‑Score = -1.74 (distress zone). The Altman Z‑Score is a multi‑factor score intended to signal bankruptcy distance; a negative value in the distress zone indicates low distance from historical bankruptcy profiles.
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100. This subscore indicates reported accruals in the income statement are internally consistent and do not, by this metric, suggest large abnormal accrual distortions in the measured period.
  • Piotroski F‑Score = 5/9 (neutral). The F‑Score assesses nine fundamental signals (profitability, leverage/liquidity, operating efficiency); a 5 suggests mixed fundamentals rather than a clear deterioration or clear improvement.
  • Owner's equity (excluding minority interest) is positive. Despite accumulated losses, the parent equity base remains positive on the balance sheet.
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 0.3315. SGAI <1 implies SGA expense did not grow faster than sales (or fell relative to sales) in the period measured.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: three individuals each hold 24.9% (totaling 74.7% between them), and a state shareholder (Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Đắk Lắk) holds 20.2%. This structure implies control is concentrated among a few large insiders and a provincial-state owner; director‑deal registrations were not provided (note that any registrations recorded with the exchange would be declarations of intent rather than executed trades).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the year‑over‑year change in trade receivables and note disclosures for 'prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long‑term receivables' to reconcile the DSRI (1.5834) with the receivables‑outside‑trade‑cycle figure (0.7% of total assets).
  • Review the revenue recognition note and the schedule of related‑party transactions to understand the drivers of Revenue quality = 0.0/100 and the low Revenue and Receivables quality subscores.
  • Reconcile cash flow from operations to net income in the cash‑flow statement and the notes to verify the Cash conversion score (24.0/100) and the TATA figure (‑0.1384).
  • Examine the audited statement lines and auditor's report showing losses in each of the latest 3 years, and verify the accumulated losses equal 0.87x paid‑in capital and the nine consecutive years of parent net losses through FY2025.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
−1.74
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.37
Negative
Composite
1
Below 30
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✗Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✗Margin Up
✗Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden1.00×Interest Burden1.46×Op. Margin−0.28×Turnover0.26×Leverage3.01=ROE−32.1%
Price Risk
Momentum
+17.9%
Volatility
162.0%
Max Drawdown
−56.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
—P/E
P/B
3.36
P/S
4.34
ROE
−27.6%
ROA
−10.1%
EPS
−420
BVPS
1.310
Gross Margin
6.2%
Net Margin
−41.4%
D/E
1.10
Current Ratio
0.46
Rev Growth
−19.7%
Profit Growth
+66.4%
EV/EBITDA
14.76
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
23.6M
Charter Capital
236B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Đồ uống & giải khát
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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