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Consumer sector

CPA

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần Cà phê Phước An
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Bia và đồ uốngCT
9.400
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
746
Current
9.400
Gap
-92.1%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Intrinsic Value
BVPS
1.493
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value
1.493

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CPA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

28
Poor
Accrual Quality
62
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
17
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

0.05
High Risk
DSRI
3.990
GMI
1.682
AQI
0.862
SGI
0.803
DEPI
1.011
SGAI
0.326
TATA
-0.095
LVGI
1.083

The Beneish M-Score of 0.0478 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, but several components raise concerns about earnings quality. The high DSRI and low earnings quality score suggest potential issues with revenue recognition and cash conversion.

Red Flags
  • DSRI of 3.9904 indicates significant growth in receivables relative to sales, which may signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 28.1/100 reflects poor performance in cash conversion (40.0/100) and revenue recognition (0.0/100), indicating potential issues with the sustainability of reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • The GMI of 1.6820 suggests that gross margins are improving, which could be a positive indicator for future profitability.
Ownership Risk

The concentrated ownership structure, with the top three shareholders holding 69.9% of shares, raises governance risks, as decisions may favor the interests of a few individuals over minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow and revenue recognition practices, and consider engaging with management to address earnings quality concerns before making significant investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
-0.99
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.60
Positive
Composite
37
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+80.4%
Volatility
133.0%
Max Drawdown
-47.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-39.71P/E
P/B6.30
P/S9.12
ROE-14.7%
ROA-5.4%
EPS-236.69
BVPS1492.96
Gross Margin13.2%
Net Margin-23.0%
D/E1.90
Current Ratio1.13
Rev Growth-19.7%
Profit Growth66.4%
EV/EBITDA32.72
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
23.6M
Charter Capital
236.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Bia và đồ uống
Sub-industry
Đồ uống & giải khát
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CPA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Thị Thúy Hằng
Indiv
24.9%
5.9 trieu
Nguyễn Trần Xuân Mai
Indiv
24.9%
5.9 trieu
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Đắk Lắk
State
20.2%
4.8 trieu
Trương Quang Tuấn
Indiv
0.4%
53.701
Phan Viết Lâm
Indiv
0.3%
39.251
Dương Kim Nhung
Indiv
0.1%
32.686
Board & Management
Trương Quang Tuấn0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Dương Kim Nhung0.1%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Khắc Lăng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Văn Khuân
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Hồ Sỹ Trung
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Huyền Trâm
Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Thanh Hải
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Nguyên Hòa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Võ Đình Quốc Huy
Kế toán trưởng
TRẦN THỊ LỆ
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Trì
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Trần Thị Kim Oanh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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