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Công ty Cổ phần Ngoại thương và Phát triển Đầu tư Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHOSECT
26.000
VND · Close 30 Oct 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Comparison requires review
−0.6%Calibrated value vs last close
Last close (VND)
26.000
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
25.851

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.

Why it needs review

  • Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
  • Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.

This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.

Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
Not assessed
A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.110
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.97%
Ke
11.97%
x
E/(D+E)
92.62%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.30%
x
D/(D+E)
7.38%
=
WACC
11.55%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→26.000
Calibrated value vs last close→−0.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
25.851
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)11.55%high risk: no
Growth rate3.50%growth method: fundamental firm blend
Base cash flow892.9 triệuone off strip ratio: 0

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
9.6%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
10.6%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
11.6%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
12.6%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
13.6%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320112010
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·2521046261571380329122380517587634899··
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·323612114787301091437497··
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·0200000000.002240.0041594··
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·2153842425183492766631924353226150··
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·0.40.1220.041263310539290.5··
Net Inventories
·00000171820423335150150··
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·00000171820423335150150··
Other current assets
·511786629688657··
Other current assets (Bn. VND)
·0000000000.50.10.50.7··
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·816717608553234604623822571353286203140··
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·3872802802800.010.030.50.534602··
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·3872802802800.010.010.50.533522··
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·0.30.20.020.030.053713934181962121331821··
Tangible fixed assets
·0.30.20.020.030.053202833021201301251313··
Leased assets
·00000058646974000··
Intagible fixed assets
·000005152537880.20.2··
Investment in properties
·155161223333310104749··
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·0000000000013060··
Investments in associate companies
·000000000004949··
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·000000.50.50.50.50.549633··
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·00000−0.5−0.5−0.5−0.5−0.5−4−14−22··
Goodwill
·0000000000078··
Other non-current assets
·7100.920.041517205360.71··
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·7100.920.012323160.60.8··
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·1,0688216696148059859529449508708738371,039··
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·403370224169162400341389384307328291312··
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·6759221167161379328362330219212190223··
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·41800091107118965629970.2··
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·0000.20822210.70.55020.9··
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·336311322211328548811610189··
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·4992000001225431200··
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·665451446445643585611555566563545546727··
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·665451446445643585611555566563545546727··
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·386386386386386386386386386386276276276··
Other Reserves
·00000000007600··
Investment and development funds (Bn. VND)
·000000000002224··
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·27−187−192−1935−521−45−10−13−666216··
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·1,0688216696148059859529449508708738371,039··
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·00001406000127101900··
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·0000000000.50.800··
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·386386386386386386386386386386276276276··
Good will (Bn. VND)
·0000013151822000··
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·00000111111110.400··

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
15
Poor
Accrual Quality
41
Cash Conversion
12
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
13

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 0.04 · 94th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +2.46
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
2.247
GMI
0.953
AQI
0.875
SGI
2.533
DEPI
0.964
SGAI
5.949
TATA
0.171
LVGI
0.589

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
0.3829th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
36.3%97th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows multiple accounting signals that warrant attention: a Beneish M-Score of 0.0366 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.46, driven largely by a DSRI of 2.2465 and a very high SGAI of 5.9489. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 15.3/100) — especially receivables quality (0.0/100) and cash conversion (11.9/100) — while the Piotroski F-Score is strong (8/9) and the Altman Z-Score sits in the grey zone at 2.34. The published statements do not meet any statutory loss tests for delisting under Decree 155/2020 (as amended).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score 0.0366 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers): measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to peers; the company ranks high (more aggressive accounting vs peers) and the M-Score rose by +2.46 year-over-year, indicating a material change in the pattern of accruals and ratios.
  • DSRI (Days Sales Receivables Index) = 2.2465: measures whether receivables have grown faster than sales (a DSRI >1 suggests revenue may be being recognized before cash collection).
  • SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 5.9489: measures unusually large increases in SG&A relative to sales (SGAI >>1 can indicate discretionary expense capitalization or timing differences affecting profit).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 36.3% of total assets (97th percentile): a very high proportion of assets are in items outside ordinary trade receivables (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables), which raises questions about the nature, recoverability and related-party links of these balances.
  • Receivables quality score = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 13.3/100: the model flags weak quality of reported revenue and receivables recognition and collection.
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 0.38 (28th percentile): profits are not converting into operating cash at a typical rate for peers, consistent with weak cash conversion score (11.9/100) and a relatively high TATA (total accruals) = 0.1707.
  • LVGI (Leverage/volume growth index) = 0.5885 and GMI (Gross margin index) = 0.9530: together with SGI = 2.5328 (sales growth index), these show rapid sales growth (SGI >2.5) with small gross margin deterioration (GMI <1) and rising accruals — a combination that can warrant closer review of revenue recognition and cost recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Piotroski F-Score = 8/9: measures operating and financial strength (profitability, leverage, liquidity, operating efficiency); an 8 indicates generally strong fundamentals on those metrics.
  • Altman Z-Score = 2.34 (grey zone): measures distance from bankruptcy; 2.34 is not in the distress zone (<1.8) and suggests no immediate insolvency signal, though it is not in the safe zone either.
  • No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minorities) positive and parent recorded no net loss in the last 0 years up to FY2025: these are balance-sheet and profit continuity signals consistent with solvency for the period reported.
  • Statutory loss tests: none met under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (as amended), so the audited statements do not trigger the specific exchange delisting condition referenced.
Ownership Risk

Ownership is relatively fragmented among several individual shareholders with the largest stakes around 4.8% (four individuals at 4.8%, one at 4.4%), so no single dominant shareholder is listed; director-deal registrations show 1 purchase registration (1,850,000 shares, net registered +4.79% of shares outstanding) and 0 sale registrations — registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades, and repeated registrations can reflect a holder who registers regularly.

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 note(s) on trade receivables, loans receivable and prepayments to suppliers and quantify the 36.3% of total assets: identify counterparties, maturities, collateral and related-party disclosures.
  • Reconcile the three-year operating cash flow / net profit schedule in the cash-flow note to confirm the 0.38 cash conversion ratio and trace significant timing differences (working capital changes, one-off items, non-cash adjustments).
  • Inspect the segment and revenue recognition notes for large year-over-year sales growth (SGI = 2.5328) and the breakdown of revenue by contract type or customer to check for changes in billing, consignment, or long-term receivable arrangements.
  • Examine the related-party transactions and loans/advances schedule for connections to the high SGAI (5.9489) and the non-trade receivable balances; verify approvals, terms and provisioning policy.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
8/9
Strong
Z-Score
2.34
Grey Zone
Sharpe
1.00
Above 1
Composite
41
30 to 49
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✗OCF > Net Income
✓Lower Leverage
✓Better Liquidity
✓No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.97×Interest Burden1.00×Op. Margin3.00×Turnover0.07×Leverage1.61=ROE32.2%
Price Risk
Momentum
+66.0%
Volatility
82.9%
Max Drawdown
−29.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
4.69P/E
P/B
1.51
P/S
13.70
ROE
38.4%
ROA
22.7%
EPS
5.546
BVPS
17.217
Gross Margin
73.7%
Net Margin
292.3%
D/E
0.08
Current Ratio
3.76
Rev Growth
+153.3%
Profit Growth
+4131.9%
EV/EBITDA
4.45
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
38.6M
Charter Capital
386B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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