FDC

Real Estate

Công ty Cổ phần Ngoại thương và Phát triển Đầu tư Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh

Bất động sảnCT

17.350

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

10.598

Current

17.350

Gap

-38.9%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

62.29%

Kd(1-t)

7.81%

D/(D+E)

37.71%

WACC

11.42%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

18.462

60%DCF Value

5.356

Blended Intrinsic

10.598

Value Decomposition

37%

63%

Explicit period (37%)Terminal value (63%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — FDC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.04

High Risk

DSRI

2.247

GMI

0.953

AQI

0.875

SGI

2.533

DEPI

0.964

SGAI

5.949

TATA

0.171

LVGI

0.836

FDC exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a high DSRI of 2.2465 and SGI of 2.5328, suggesting aggressive revenue growth relative to its cash flow. However, the Beneish M-Score of -0.0444 is below the manipulation threshold, indicating that while there are risks, outright manipulation is not definitively indicated.

Red Flags

High DSRI of 2.2465 indicates significant growth in receivables relative to sales, which could suggest aggressive revenue recognition.
SGI of 2.5328 indicates that sales growth is significantly outpacing the overall market, raising concerns about sustainability.
Earnings Quality Score of 35.3/100, particularly low eq_cash_conv at 11.9/100, suggests poor cash conversion from earnings.

Positive Signals

The GMI of 0.9530 is below 1, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation through accounting practices.
A strong eq_receivables score of 100.0/100 suggests that the company is effectively managing its receivables.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is fragmented with top individual shareholders each holding only 4.8%, which may lead to a lack of cohesive strategic direction and potential governance issues.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and revenue recognition practices, considering a cautious approach to investment in FDC due to elevated risks.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

7/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.93

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.43

Negative

Composite

Poor

Price Risk

Momentum

-26.5%

Volatility

71.1%

Max Drawdown

-47.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

2.90P/E

P/B0.94

P/S8.49

ROE38.4%

ROA22.7%

EPS5545.40

BVPS17213.61

Gross Margin73.7%

Net Margin292.3%

D/E0.61

Current Ratio3.76

Rev Growth153.3%

Profit Growth4131.9%

EV/EBITDA2.79

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

38.6M

Charter Capital

386.3B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for FDC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Hồ Anh Tuấn

Indiv

4.8%

1.9 trieu

Phạm Thị Kim Ngân

Indiv

4.8%

1.9 trieu

Lương Vĩ Hà

Indiv

4.8%

1.9 trieu

Lê Ngân Nhi

Indiv

4.8%

1.9 trieu

Bùi Thị Vân Nga

Indiv

4.8%

1.9 trieu

Lê Thu Hiền

Indiv

4.4%

1.7 trieu

Lê Kim Hiền

Indiv

4.4%

1.7 trieu

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh

Indiv

4.3%

1.7 trieu

Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ Pavo Capital

Inst

4.0%

1.5 trieu

Lưu Minh Thiện

Indiv

3.4%

1.3 trieu

Huỳnh Văn Thiện

Indiv

3.3%

899.790

Lê Thị Mỹ Linh

Indiv

3.2%

1.2 trieu

Lê Kim Nhung

Indiv

3.2%

1.2 trieu

Đoàn Thị Thu Sương

Indiv

2.9%

1.1 trieu

Phan Tiến Dũng

Indiv

2.8%

780.000

LÊ THÁI THÀNH

Indiv

2.4%

906.271

Phan Văn Quý

Indiv

2.1%

580.620

Nguyễn Thị Tân

Indiv

1.4%

377.345

Công ty TNHH Doanh Bảo An

Inst

1.3%

735.223

Trần Thị Kim Chi

Indiv

1.3%

492.500

Lê Thị Mỹ

Indiv

1.2%

479.062

Bùi Tuấn Ngọc

Indiv

1.2%

326.370

Trần Minh Sơn

Indiv

0.6%

220.800

Trần Tố Quy

Indiv

0.6%

220.800

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Thành Công

Inst

0.5%

188.000

Nguyễn Thế Hậu

Indiv

0.3%

71.427

Đỗ Lê Hồng Châu

Indiv

0.2%

63.337

Công ty Cổ phần New Pine Multimedia Technologies

Inst

0.2%

83.260

Lê Văn Dũng

Indiv

0.2%

60.242

Thân Trọng Việt

Indiv

0.2%

53.400

Huỳnh Khánh Quốc

Indiv

0.2%

50.000

Ngân hàng Thương mại Cổ phần Xuất nhập khẩu Việt Nam

Inst

0.1%

40.540

Công ty TNHH Liên doanh Côn Đảo

Inst

0.1%

33.891

Trần Hữu Chinh

Indiv

0.1%

30.000

Board & Management

Nguyễn Vũ Bảo Hoàng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Bảo Toàn

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Chí Hiếu

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thụy Như Quỳnh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Tạ Xuân Hương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Vũ Đình Khoa

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Trần Lệ Gia Uyên

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Quan Minh Tuấn

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thế Tiến

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Trần Thị Bích Đào

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Oanh

Kế toán trưởng

Top connections

VPX80.0%HCT24.7%ONW24.5%PHH15.9%DHT11.9%VCK2 links BBT9.5%SGP7.4%CLH7.0%BLI6.5%VDS5.4%ISG5.2%

Computed 12/04/2026