FDC
Công ty Cổ phần Ngoại thương và Phát triển Đầu tư Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh
Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close
Illustrative estimate- Last close (VND)
- 26.000
- Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
- 25.851
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
Earnings-capitalised value
Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.
How it is calculated
- 1Measure the gap
Between the model and the last close.
- 2Check the record2015–2024
What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.
- 3Apply to the close
That return is applied to the last close.
Keep in mind
- For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
- No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
- Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Why it needs review
- Trading liquidity is below the comparison threshold.
- Under financial distress the model falls back to book value.
This estimate remains visible for checking its calculation. Its inputs require review before using it in a stock comparison. The model comparison behind this value needs review. The estimate does not remove the data limitations listed above.
Comparison assessed 3 Nov 2026Valid through 29 Nov 2026
- Model reliability
- Low
- Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
- High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
- Probability of outperforming peers
- Not assessed
- A separate peer-outperformance probability is unavailable for this valuation.
These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.
Valuation Breakdown
Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.
Technical details
RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.
RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.
Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.
We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.
Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)
DCF Sensitivity
Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.
Earnings Quality
Financial Forensics
Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.
Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025
- Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
- 0.3829th pctile
- Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
- 36.3%97th pctile
- Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
- None
- Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
- 0
- Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
- Positive
Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.
Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.
The company shows multiple accounting signals that warrant attention: a Beneish M-Score of 0.0366 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers) with a year-over-year increase of +2.46, driven largely by a DSRI of 2.2465 and a very high SGAI of 5.9489. Earnings-quality metrics are weak overall (Earnings Quality 15.3/100) — especially receivables quality (0.0/100) and cash conversion (11.9/100) — while the Piotroski F-Score is strong (8/9) and the Altman Z-Score sits in the grey zone at 2.34. The published statements do not meet any statutory loss tests for delisting under Decree 155/2020 (as amended).
- Beneish M-Score 0.0366 (94th percentile vs Vietnamese peers): measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation relative to peers; the company ranks high (more aggressive accounting vs peers) and the M-Score rose by +2.46 year-over-year, indicating a material change in the pattern of accruals and ratios.
- DSRI (Days Sales Receivables Index) = 2.2465: measures whether receivables have grown faster than sales (a DSRI >1 suggests revenue may be being recognized before cash collection).
- SGAI (Sales, General & Admin index) = 5.9489: measures unusually large increases in SG&A relative to sales (SGAI >>1 can indicate discretionary expense capitalization or timing differences affecting profit).
- Receivables outside the trade cycle = 36.3% of total assets (97th percentile): a very high proportion of assets are in items outside ordinary trade receivables (prepayments, loans receivable, long-term receivables), which raises questions about the nature, recoverability and related-party links of these balances.
- Receivables quality score = 0.0/100 and Revenue quality = 13.3/100: the model flags weak quality of reported revenue and receivables recognition and collection.
- Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 0.38 (28th percentile): profits are not converting into operating cash at a typical rate for peers, consistent with weak cash conversion score (11.9/100) and a relatively high TATA (total accruals) = 0.1707.
- LVGI (Leverage/volume growth index) = 0.5885 and GMI (Gross margin index) = 0.9530: together with SGI = 2.5328 (sales growth index), these show rapid sales growth (SGI >2.5) with small gross margin deterioration (GMI <1) and rising accruals — a combination that can warrant closer review of revenue recognition and cost recognition.
- Piotroski F-Score = 8/9: measures operating and financial strength (profitability, leverage, liquidity, operating efficiency); an 8 indicates generally strong fundamentals on those metrics.
- Altman Z-Score = 2.34 (grey zone): measures distance from bankruptcy; 2.34 is not in the distress zone (<1.8) and suggests no immediate insolvency signal, though it is not in the safe zone either.
- No accumulated losses; owner's equity (excluding minorities) positive and parent recorded no net loss in the last 0 years up to FY2025: these are balance-sheet and profit continuity signals consistent with solvency for the period reported.
- Statutory loss tests: none met under Decree 155/2020 Art.120(1)(e) (as amended), so the audited statements do not trigger the specific exchange delisting condition referenced.
Ownership is relatively fragmented among several individual shareholders with the largest stakes around 4.8% (four individuals at 4.8%, one at 4.4%), so no single dominant shareholder is listed; director-deal registrations show 1 purchase registration (1,850,000 shares, net registered +4.79% of shares outstanding) and 0 sale registrations — registrations are intentions recorded with the exchange, not executed trades, and repeated registrations can reflect a holder who registers regularly.
- Compare the FY2025 note(s) on trade receivables, loans receivable and prepayments to suppliers and quantify the 36.3% of total assets: identify counterparties, maturities, collateral and related-party disclosures.
- Reconcile the three-year operating cash flow / net profit schedule in the cash-flow note to confirm the 0.38 cash conversion ratio and trace significant timing differences (working capital changes, one-off items, non-cash adjustments).
- Inspect the segment and revenue recognition notes for large year-over-year sales growth (SGI = 2.5328) and the breakdown of revenue by contract type or customer to check for changes in billing, consignment, or long-term receivable arrangements.
- Examine the related-party transactions and loans/advances schedule for connections to the high SGAI (5.9489) and the non-trade receivable balances; verify approvals, terms and provisioning policy.
Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.
Quantitative Scores
Key Ratios
- P/B
- 1.51
- P/S
- 13.70
- ROE
- 38.4%
- ROA
- 22.7%
- EPS
- 5.546
- BVPS
- 17.217
- Gross Margin
- 73.7%
- Net Margin
- 292.3%
- D/E
- 0.08
- Current Ratio
- 3.76
- Rev Growth
- +153.3%
- Profit Growth
- +4131.9%
- EV/EBITDA
- 4.45
- Div Yield
- —
Company Overview
- Shares outstanding
- 38.6M
- Charter Capital
- 386B VND
- Sector (ICB L2)
- Bất động sản
- Industry (ICB L3)
- Bất động sản
- Sub-industry
- Bất động sản
- Company Type
- CT