HCT

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Thương mại - Dịch vụ - Vận tải Xi măng Hải Phòng

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Vận tảiCT

10.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

14.597

Current

10.000

Gap

+46.0%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

91.48%

Kd(1-t)

3.55%

D/(D+E)

8.52%

WACC

11.46%

Growth Estimate

Sector Default3.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

6.460

50%DCF Value

22.734

Blended Intrinsic

14.597

Value Decomposition

40%

60%

Explicit period (40%)Terminal value (60%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — HCT

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

100

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-3.19

Low Risk

DSRI

1.120

GMI

0.616

AQI

0.346

SGI

0.977

DEPI

0.831

SGAI

0.985

TATA

-0.060

LVGI

1.102

HCT exhibits several concerning indicators that suggest potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -3.1899, well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 67.1 indicates reasonable performance, particularly in cash conversion and receivables management.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -3.1899 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
Low eq_margin score of 0.0/100 suggests poor profitability relative to revenue, raising concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

High eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash conversion from earnings, suggesting operational efficiency.
Strong institutional ownership at 53.9% by Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam may provide stability and oversight.

Ownership Risk

The high concentration of ownership, particularly with 53.9% held by a state-owned enterprise, could lead to potential conflicts of interest and reduced transparency in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor HCT's financial disclosures and operational performance, particularly focusing on revenue recognition practices. Consider a cautious approach to investment until further clarity on earnings quality is established.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

5.22

Safe Zone

Sharpe

0.56

Positive

Composite

Strong

Price Risk

Momentum

+37.9%

Volatility

65.2%

Max Drawdown

-49.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

54.39P/E

P/B0.52

P/S0.66

ROE1.0%

ROA0.9%

EPS183.86

BVPS19355.49

Gross Margin13.6%

Net Margin1.2%

D/E0.09

Current Ratio9.69

Rev Growth-3.3%

Profit Growth72.0%

EV/EBITDA10.56

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

2.0M

Charter Capital

20.2B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp

Industry (ICB L3)

Vận tải

Sub-industry

Dịch vụ vận tải

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for HCT — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Xi măng Việt Nam

Inst

53.9%

1.1 trieu

Nguyễn Tuấn Anh

Indiv

24.7%

497.900

Nguyễn Thị Huyền Nhung

Indiv

5.2%

105.400

Nguyễn Đặng Bảo Linh

Indiv

5.0%

101.200

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Hải Phòng

Inst

1.2%

25.000

Vũ Châu Thành

Indiv

0.5%

10.000

Vũ Văn Đức

Indiv

0.1%

2.800

Lê Văn Thắng

Indiv

0.1%

2.500

nguyen-thanh-phuong

Indiv

0.1%

2.500

Board & Management

Lê Văn Thắng0.1%

Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

NGUYỄN THÀNH PHƯƠNG0.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trịnh Thị Hương

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Văn Tư

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thế Hưng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Mộng Điệp

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Thanh Tùng

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Kế toán trưởng

Mai Hồng Hải

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Lê Thị Hạnh

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Top connections

HT179.7%BTS79.5%BCC73.1%HOM71.1%DXV65.8%VTV62.9%TMX59.6%TXM53.9%HTV53.9%BPC53.9%BXH53.9%BBS53.9%

Computed 12/04/2026