FRC

Cyclicals

Công ty Cổ phần Lâm đặc sản xuất khẩu Quảng Nam

Tài nguyên Cơ bản/Lâm nghiệp và GiấyCT

25.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

62.002

Current

25.000

Gap

+148.0%

ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Tài nguyên Cơ bản→Cyclical

Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Tài nguyên Cơ bản" maps to the cyclical group

ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle

Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

Model Inputs

Mid-Cycle EBITDA→25.66B

Fair EV/EBITDA→5.0x

Years of data→7

Valuation

Mid-Cycle EBITDA

25.66B

Fair EV/EBITDA

5.0x

Net Debt

-57.69B

Equity Value

62.002

Years of data→7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — FRC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2020

-3.27

Low Risk

DSRI

1.007

GMI

1.003

AQI

0.275

SGI

1.334

DEPI

0.000

SGAI

0.999

TATA

-0.147

LVGI

1.012

FRC exhibits an elevated risk profile due to its Beneish M-Score of -3.2735, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the high SGI of 1.3340 and low AQI of 0.2752 suggest potential concerns regarding revenue growth sustainability and earnings quality.

Red Flags

Beneish M-Score of -3.2735, indicating potential earnings manipulation risk as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
SGI of 1.3340 suggests aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable.
AQI of 0.2752 indicates poor earnings quality, particularly concerning revenue recognition.

Positive Signals

Earnings Quality Score of 74.6/100 indicates overall decent earnings quality, particularly strong cash conversion (100.0/100) and receivables management (100.0/100).
Low SGAI of 0.9985 suggests effective management of selling, general, and administrative expenses.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Đông Thị Thắm holding 65.1%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. The significant state ownership (19.0%) could also influence operational decisions.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue growth trends and earnings quality metrics, considering the elevated SGI and low AQI. A cautious approach is advised, potentially waiting for clearer signals of sustainable growth before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

2.41

Grey Zone

Sharpe

0.04

Positive

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+6.3%

Volatility

79.2%

Max Drawdown

-33.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024

5.01P/E

P/B0.46

P/S0.54

ROE9.6%

ROA6.2%

EPS4987.69

BVPS54224.08

Gross Margin18.4%

Net Margin10.7%

D/E0.60

Current Ratio1.96

Rev Growth-6.7%

Profit Growth3987.6%

EV/EBITDA0.67

Div Yield2.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

3.0M

Charter Capital

30.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Tài nguyên Cơ bản

Industry (ICB L3)

Lâm nghiệp và Giấy

Sub-industry

Lâm sản và Chế biến gỗ

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for FRC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Đông Thị Thắm

Indiv

65.1%

2.0 trieu

Tổng Công ty Vận tải Thủy - Công ty Cổ phần

State

19.0%

569.235

Nguyễn Văn Mạnh

Indiv

4.6%

137.400

Trịnh Tuấn Nguyên Khương

Indiv

0.2%

6.150

Quảng Thanh Bình

Indiv

0.2%

5.000

Board & Management

Trịnh Tuấn Nguyên Khương0.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Quảng Thanh Bình0.2%

Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Diễm Nga

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Ngọc Huyền

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Liễu

Trưởng phòng Tài chính - Kế toán/Kế toán trưởng

Nguyễn Thị Huyền Trang

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thủy Nguyên

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phan Anh Tuấn

Phó Giám đốc

Lưu Tiến Thành

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Đặng Công Quang

Phó Giám đốc

Phạm Mỹ Hoa

Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ

Top connections

ALT4.8%PPY4.6%NED4.6%CAN4.6%PMW4.6%TSB4.6%TIN4.1%

Computed 12/04/2026