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Utilities sector

PPY

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Xăng dầu dầu khí Phú Yên
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
9.100
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
13.200
Current
9.100
Gap
+45.0%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend2.00%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS700
Payout ratio83.7%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
700
Base Growth
2.00%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
13.200
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — PPY

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

54
Fair
Accrual Quality
74
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
97
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.83
Low Risk
DSRI
0.791
GMI
1.040
AQI
1.445
SGI
0.926
DEPI
0.830
SGAI
0.980
TATA
-0.065
LVGI
0.916

PPY exhibits a Beneish M-Score of -2.829, indicating a low likelihood of earnings manipulation. However, the earnings quality score of 54.3 suggests potential concerns, particularly with revenue and margin metrics scoring 0.0, which may raise red flags regarding the sustainability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Earnings quality score of 54.3 indicates potential issues, especially with revenue and margin metrics both at 0.0, signaling possible revenue recognition concerns.
  • The SGI of 0.9262 suggests a decline in sales growth, which may indicate weakening demand or operational challenges.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.829 is well below the threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower risk of earnings manipulation.
  • High cash conversion score of 100.0 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam holding 67.1%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest affecting minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and operational performance, given the concerning earnings quality metrics. Consider a cautious approach until clearer signals of revenue stability emerge.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
13.92
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.22
Positive
Composite
62
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+21.8%
Volatility
38.9%
Max Drawdown
-20.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
65.20P/E
P/B0.57
P/S0.02
ROE0.8%
ROA0.4%
EPS139.57
BVPS16040.63
Gross Margin3.9%
Net Margin0.0%
D/E1.02
Current Ratio0.95
Rev Growth-7.4%
Profit Growth-88.7%
EV/EBITDA23.55
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
9.3M
Charter Capital
93.4B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for PPY — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Dầu Việt Nam
Inst
67.1%
6.3 trieu
Đỗ Tiến Cường
Indiv
8.8%
826.356
Lê Thị Liên
Indiv
6.2%
581.185
Nguyễn Văn Mạnh
Indiv
4.2%
362.600
Board & Management
Ma Đức Tú
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Võ Nguyên Hợp
Phó Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Phương
Kế toán trưởng
Huỳnh Minh Triết
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Ngô Văn Nhiệm
Giám đốc
Lại Thị Thu Hoài
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Trần Văn Hay
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Anh Toàn
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Mai Bích Thủy
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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