CAN

Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần Đồ hộp Hạ Long

Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT

27.800

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

174.789

Current

27.800

Gap

+500.0%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Thực phẩm và đồ uống→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

37.85%

Kd(1-t)

4.65%

D/(D+E)

62.15%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.63%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→58.00B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

58.00B

Growth Rate

2.63%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

174.789

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CAN

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.28

Moderate

DSRI

1.456

GMI

0.963

AQI

0.656

SGI

0.972

DEPI

1.227

SGAI

1.058

TATA

0.008

LVGI

1.266

The Beneish M-Score of -2.2797 indicates a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation, but the earnings quality score of 37.1/100 reveals significant concerns, particularly in cash conversion and margin metrics. The ownership structure, with a dominant institutional shareholder, adds a layer of complexity to the assessment.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 37.1/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100 indicating severe issues in converting earnings to cash.
DSRI of 1.4557 suggests potential overstatement of receivables relative to sales, raising concerns about revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.2797 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
High accrual score of 97.0/100 indicates that reported earnings are largely based on actual transactions rather than accounting adjustments.

Ownership Risk

The presence of a significant institutional shareholder (27.8%) may provide some stability, but the concentration of ownership among a few individuals could lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow metrics and revenue recognition practices, while considering the potential for governance issues due to concentrated ownership. A cautious approach is advised until improvements in earnings quality are observed.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

2/9

Weak

Z-Score

2.65

Grey Zone

Sharpe

-0.95

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-47.4%

Volatility

90.2%

Max Drawdown

-61.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

71.48P/E

P/B0.94

P/S0.21

ROE1.3%

ROA0.6%

EPS388.93

BVPS29578.80

Gross Margin20.9%

Net Margin0.3%

D/E1.64

Current Ratio1.48

Rev Growth1.9%

Profit Growth-8.5%

EV/EBITDA20.76

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

5.0M

Charter Capital

50.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Thực phẩm và đồ uống

Industry (ICB L3)

Sản xuất thực phẩm

Sub-industry

Thực phẩm

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CAN — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Tổng Công ty Thủy sản Việt Nam

Inst

27.8%

1.4 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Bính

Indiv

6.7%

336.300

Lê Thị Ánh Tuyết

Indiv

4.8%

240.000

Nguyễn Văn Mạnh

Indiv

3.6%

180.200

Lương Thế Hùng

Indiv

0.8%

41.600

Đoàn Văn Minh

Indiv

0.7%

32.620

Bùi Quốc Hưng

Indiv

0.3%

16.500

Trần Thị Minh Ngọc

Indiv

0.3%

15.380

Phan Minh Tuấn

Indiv

0.3%

15.000

Chua Seng Beng

Indiv

0.3%

13.000

Nguyễn Thị Liên Minh

Indiv

0.2%

12.000

Board & Management

Bùi Quốc Hưng0.3%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Thị Thu Nga

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Thị Hải Yến

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Kek Chin Ann

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

BÙI THỊ HƯỜNG

Kế toán trưởng

Wilson Cheah Hui Pin

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Hữu Hoàng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trương Sỹ Toàn

Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Thị Thủy Tiên

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Mạnh Tuấn Vũ

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Lã Thị Quy

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thành Trung

Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Công Toàn

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Top connections

FSO62.4%SPH59.3%SNC50.8%SCO46.4%SPD36.4%SPV27.8%SRF27.8%SJ127.8%VPG25.8%ECO20.0%VIP10.2%KHG9.9%

Computed 12/04/2026