NED

Construction

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư và Phát triển Điện Tây Bắc

Xây dựng và Vật liệuCT

7.000

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Undervalued

Medium

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

11.779

Current

7.000

Gap

+68.3%

ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Xây dựng và Vật liệu→Construction

Classified as construction because ICB sector "Xây dựng và Vật liệu" maps to the construction group

ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.100

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

12.20%

E/(D+E)

66.86%

Kd(1-t)

6.75%

D/(D+E)

33.14%

WACC

10.39%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend2.00%

Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

50%EV/EBITDA Value

11.325

50%DCF Value

12.233

Blended Intrinsic

11.779

Value Decomposition

36%

64%

Explicit period (36%)Terminal value (64%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — NED

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Fair

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.31

Moderate

DSRI

1.251

GMI

0.998

AQI

0.700

SGI

1.092

DEPI

0.968

SGAI

1.040

TATA

-0.007

LVGI

0.915

The Beneish M-Score of -2.3069 indicates that NED is not likely engaging in earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in revenue recognition and margin quality, which could pose risks to future performance.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 67.8/100 is decent but shows alarming 0.0/100 in both eq_margin and eq_revenue, indicating potential issues with profitability and revenue recognition.
DSRI of 1.2514 suggests that accounts receivable are growing faster than revenues, which may indicate aggressive revenue recognition practices.

Positive Signals

High eq_accrual score of 97.0/100 and eq_cash_conv score of 94.1/100 suggest strong cash conversion and accrual quality, indicating that earnings are backed by cash flows.

Ownership Risk

The top shareholders hold significant stakes, with Trần Văn Ngư owning 34.4%, which could lead to potential governance risks and lack of minority shareholder protection.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor NED's revenue recognition practices and consider a deeper analysis of its operational efficiency before making investment decisions. Engaging with management on earnings quality metrics may provide additional insights.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

8/9

Strong

Z-Score

1.23

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.13

Negative

Composite

Fair

Price Risk

Momentum

+3.9%

Volatility

15.1%

Max Drawdown

-22.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

7.37P/E

P/B0.56

P/S2.99

ROE7.8%

ROA5.3%

EPS949.86

BVPS12438.21

Gross Margin60.0%

Net Margin40.5%

D/E0.44

Current Ratio0.83

Rev Growth9.2%

Profit Growth37.7%

EV/EBITDA5.28

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

40.5M

Charter Capital

405.0B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Industry (ICB L3)

Xây dựng và Vật liệu

Sub-industry

Xây dựng

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for NED — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Trần Văn Ngư

Indiv

34.4%

13.9 trieu

Đầu Tư Phát Triển An Khánh Hưng

Indiv

15.6%

6.3 trieu

Nguyễn Văn Mạnh

Indiv

3.9%

1.6 trieu

Board & Management

Đào Kim Cương

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Đặng Thị Huyền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hằng

Kế toán trưởng

Bùi Thị Vân

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Trần Đức Hậu

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Thị Trà

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

DƯƠNG VĂN QUYỀN

Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Văn Huyên

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Phạm Sỹ Long

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Top connections

SJE34.4%ALT4.8%FRC4.6%PPY4.2%CAN3.9%PMW3.9%TSB3.9%

Computed 12/04/2026