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Cyclicals sector

SGH

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Khách sạn Sài Gòn
Du lịch và Giải trí/Du lịch & Giải tríCT
21.700
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
19.916
Current
21.700
Gap
-8.2%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTDu lịch và Giải tríCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Du lịch và Giải trí" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA10.02B
Fair EV/EBITDA24.0x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
10.02B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
24.0x
-
Net Debt
-5.93B
=
Equity Value
19.916
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SGH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

65
Fair
Accrual Quality
79
Cash Conversion
35
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
78
Revenue Quality
25

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.74
Low Risk
DSRI
0.799
GMI
0.986
AQI
1.386
SGI
1.073
DEPI
0.993
SGAI
1.495
TATA
0.000
LVGI
1.637

SGH's Beneish M-Score of -2.7433 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the high SGI of 1.0732 and the low eq_revenue score of 5.1/100 suggest potential concerns regarding revenue growth sustainability and quality.

Red Flags
  • SGI of 1.0732 indicates revenue growth that may not be sustainable.
  • eq_revenue score of 5.1/100 suggests significant issues with revenue recognition.
Positive Signals
  • Earnings Quality Score of 82.1/100 indicates generally strong earnings quality.
  • High eq_accrual score of 99.9/100 suggests effective management of accruals.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is concentrated, with the top shareholder holding 38.9%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. However, institutional ownership is also present, providing some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the sustainability of growth before making investment decisions. A deeper analysis of cash flow metrics is recommended to assess the true financial health of SGH.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
8.99
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.44
Negative
Composite
60
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+21.2%
Volatility
68.7%
Max Drawdown
-48.6%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
13.68P/E
P/B1.53
P/S4.49
ROE11.4%
ROA9.6%
EPS1315.56
BVPS11753.04
Gross Margin48.0%
Net Margin32.8%
D/E0.19
Current Ratio5.72
Rev Growth9.4%
Profit Growth53.0%
EV/EBITDA14.59
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
12.4M
Charter Capital
123.6B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Du lịch và Giải trí
Industry (ICB L3)
Du lịch & Giải trí
Sub-industry
Khách sạn
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SGH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Du lịch Sài Gòn
Inst
38.9%
4.8 trieu
Trần Huy Thắng
Indiv
19.4%
686.300
Công ty Cổ phần Bông Sen
Inst
8.9%
1.1 trieu
Merrill Lynch International
Inst
2.3%
80.860
Citigroup Global Market Ltd
Inst
1.9%
66.600
Lý Thanh Hùng
Indiv
0.9%
114.870
Chung Hán Lương
Indiv
0.6%
73.010
Thái Thị Huyện
Indiv
0.4%
14.150
Trương Thanh Châu
Indiv
0.1%
3.800
Board & Management
Chung Hán Lương0.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Doãn Định
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Huỳnh Thị Kim Loan
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phan Ngọc Bích
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Xuân Đào
Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Hòa
Kế toán trưởng
Trần Tiến
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Trương Nguyễn Khang Vy
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Thanh Bình
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Trương Tấn Sơn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Tạ Thị Tuyết Mai
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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