KBC

Real Estate

Tổng Công ty Phát triển Đô thị Kinh Bắc - CTCP

Bất động sảnCT

30.700

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Very Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

16.488

Current

30.700

Gap

-46.3%

ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate

Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group

ModelRNAV + DCF Blend

Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

1.300

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

13.60%

E/(D+E)

46.15%

Kd(1-t)

5.66%

D/(D+E)

53.85%

WACC

10.00%

+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend3.00%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Valuation

40%RNAV Proxy

32.976

60%DCF Value

-13.508

Blended Intrinsic

16.488

Value Decomposition

33%

67%

Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — KBC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Poor

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-0.22

High Risk

DSRI

0.544

GMI

0.969

AQI

1.092

SGI

2.409

DEPI

1.150

SGAI

0.558

TATA

0.291

LVGI

1.145

KBC exhibits several concerning financial metrics, particularly a high SGI of 2.4091, indicating aggressive revenue growth that may not be sustainable. The earnings quality score of 27.3/100, especially the cash conversion score of 0.0/100, raises significant red flags regarding the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags

High SGI of 2.4091 suggests aggressive growth that may not be supported by actual sales.
Earnings Quality Score of 27.3/100, with a cash conversion score of 0.0/100, indicates poor cash flow relative to earnings.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -0.2158 is well below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, suggesting lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Strong receivables score of 100.0/100 indicates effective management of accounts receivable.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is relatively fragmented with no single entity holding a controlling stake, which may dilute accountability and oversight. However, the presence of institutional investors could provide some level of stability.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor KBC's revenue growth and cash flow metrics, considering a cautious approach until there is improvement in earnings quality and cash conversion. Engaging with management for clarity on growth strategies may also be beneficial.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

4/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.51

Distress Zone

Sharpe

0.35

Positive

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

+20.9%

Volatility

40.5%

Max Drawdown

-32.8%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

14.98P/E

P/B1.29

P/S4.81

ROE9.9%

ROA3.8%

EPS2279.52

BVPS26380.81

Gross Margin47.7%

Net Margin32.1%

D/E1.61

Current Ratio3.69

Rev Growth140.9%

Profit Growth462.1%

EV/EBITDA20.12

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

941.8M

Charter Capital

9417.5B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Bất động sản

Industry (ICB L3)

Bất động sản

Sub-industry

Bất động sản

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for KBC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Công ty Cổ phần Phát Triển Xanh Bền Vững Châu Á Thái Bình Dương

Inst

9.2%

86.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Tư Vấn Và Đầu Tư Kinh Bắc

Inst

8.5%

65.3 trieu

Đặng Thanh Tâm

Indiv

5.5%

52.1 trieu

Quỹ Đầu Tư Hạ Tầng PVI

Inst

5.3%

50.0 trieu

Phạm Thị Lê

Indiv

4.9%

19.6 trieu

Công ty Cổ Phần Đầu Tư Vinatex - Tân Tạo

Inst

4.2%

39.2 trieu

Quách Thị Nga

Indiv

3.8%

15.0 trieu

VanEck Vietnam ETF

Inst

3.6%

17.2 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu tư Sài Gòn VRG

Inst

3.5%

16.9 trieu

Nguyễn Thị Kim Xuân

Indiv

3.4%

13.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán VPBank

Inst

3.2%

30.0 trieu

sầm thị hường

Indiv

2.6%

10.3 trieu

beira limited

Inst

2.2%

10.5 trieu

CTBC Vietnam Equity Fund

Inst

2.2%

17.0 trieu

Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellchaft, London Branch

Inst

2.1%

9.9 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý quỹ đầu tư SGI

Inst

1.6%

15.4 trieu

amersham industries limited

Inst

1.5%

11.8 trieu

Đặng Nguyễn Quỳnh Anh

Indiv

1.4%

13.3 trieu

Vietnam Enterprise Investments Limited

Inst

1.2%

8.9 trieu

Norges Bank

Inst

1.0%

8.0 trieu

CTCP Sài Gòn Xây dựng

Inst

0.6%

2.9 trieu

Wareham Group Limited

Inst

0.6%

4.4 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Sản xuất và Phát triển Xây dựng Cửu Long

Inst

0.5%

2.3 trieu

DC Developing Markets Strategies Public Limited Company

Inst

0.4%

3.2 trieu

Grinling International Limited

Inst

0.3%

2.1 trieu

Tổng Công ty Du lịch Sài Gòn

Inst

0.2%

900.000

balestrand limited

Inst

0.2%

890.000

Công ty Cổ phần Quản lý Quỹ PVI

Inst

0.1%

1.3 trieu

Samsung Vietnam Securities Master Investment Trust

Inst

0.1%

768.000

Board & Management

Đặng Thanh Tâm5.5%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Thị Thu Hương

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc

Phạm Phúc Hiếu

Kế toán trưởng/Phó Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Phan Anh Dũng

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Thế Thị Minh Hồng

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Nguyễn Mỹ Ngọc

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Nguyễn Vĩnh Thọ

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Trần Tiến Thành

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Trần Thị Thu Hà

Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Nguyễn Bích Ngọc

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Huỳnh Phát

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Top connections

DLD50.8%DSP49.0%SGH38.9%BMJ24.2%VCT24.0%ACC23.7%PMC21.6%NTC20.0%ICF18.3%TDB14.1%XHC11.4%S9910.4%

Computed 12/04/2026