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Cyclicals sector

DLD

Cyclicals
Công ty Cổ phần Du lịch Đắk Lắk
Du lịch và Giải trí/Du lịch & Giải tríCT
4.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
5.700
Current
4.900
Gap
+16.3%
ModelEV EBITDA MIDCYCLE

Valuation Breakdown

CTDu lịch và Giải tríCyclical
Classified as cyclical because ICB sector "Du lịch và Giải trí" maps to the cyclical group
ModelEV/EBITDA Mid-Cycle
Equity Value = Mid-Cycle EBITDA x Fair EV/EBITDA - Net Debt

Cyclical companies (chemicals, oil & gas, basic resources) have earnings that swing dramatically with commodity prices and economic cycles. Valuing them on a single year's earnings is misleading: they look cheap at peaks and expensive at troughs. This model uses 7-year median EBITDA ("mid-cycle" earnings) and a 7-year median EV/EBITDA multiple to estimate what the firm is worth at a normal point in the cycle.

1
Model Inputs
Mid-Cycle EBITDA3.29B
Fair EV/EBITDA37.8x
Years of data7
2
Valuation
Mid-Cycle EBITDA
3.29B
x
Fair EV/EBITDA
37.8x
-
Net Debt
71.37B
=
Equity Value
5.700
Years of data7

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — DLD

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2024

49
Weak
Accrual Quality
64
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.78
Low Risk
DSRI
1.039
GMI
0.992
AQI
1.205
SGI
1.040
DEPI
0.973
SGAI
0.968
TATA
-0.090
LVGI
1.100

DLD exhibits several concerning indicators of potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.7823, which is significantly below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the earnings quality metrics reveal a low cash conversion score of 0.3/100, indicating potential issues with cash flow relative to reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.7823 indicates a high likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings quality score of 49.3/100, particularly low cash conversion score of 0.3/100, suggests poor earnings quality.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables and margin metrics at 100.0/100 indicate strong management of receivables and profitability margins.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with the top shareholder, Tổng Công ty Du lịch Sài Gòn, holding 50.8%. This concentration may pose risks related to governance and decision-making, potentially sidelining minority shareholders.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and closely monitor DLD's financial disclosures and cash flow statements. Consider a wait-and-see approach until there are clearer indicators of improved earnings quality and transparency.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
-1.62
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.53
Negative
Composite
50
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+6.3%
Volatility
131.5%
Max Drawdown
-54.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2024
-5.07P/E
P/B7.98
P/S1.15
ROE-88.1%
ROA-8.9%
EPS-1124.04
BVPS713.95
Gross Margin15.6%
Net Margin-22.7%
D/E16.52
Current Ratio0.04
Rev Growth4.0%
Profit Growth-23.4%
EV/EBITDA37.78
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
9.3M
Charter Capital
93.1B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Du lịch và Giải trí
Industry (ICB L3)
Du lịch & Giải trí
Sub-industry
Khách sạn
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for DLD — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Du lịch Sài Gòn
Inst
50.8%
4.7 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Quốc Tế Dp
Inst
9.0%
842.000
Công ty Cổ phần Kim loại màu Nghệ Tĩnh
Inst
8.6%
800.000
Đỗ Vân Anh
Indiv
8.4%
781.410
Tổng Công ty Bến Thành
Inst
8.0%
740.856
Công ty TNHH Magentta Việt Nam
Inst
4.8%
450.000
Phạm Thiện Long
Indiv
1.9%
177.000
Võ Văn Châu
Indiv
0.9%
87.672
Trần Duy Khương An
Indiv
0.4%
38.856
Trần Hồng Tâm
Indiv
0.3%
30.167
Ninh Văn Hiến
Indiv
0.3%
27.973
Huỳnh Thị Ngọc
Indiv
0.1%
12.244
Nguyễn Thị Sáu
Indiv
0.1%
10.000
Board & Management
Nguyễn Thị Sáu0.1%
Kế toán trưởng
Phạm Hữu Bắc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thu Tâm
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Phạm Thị Nguyệt
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trương Đức Hùng
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Mười
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Dương Đình Nam
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Nguyễn Anh Tuấn
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Thành Đô
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Hằng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Kim Châu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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