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Real Estate sector

SSH

Real Estate
Công ty Cổ phần Phát triển Sunshine Homes
Bất động sảnCT
75.200
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
17.717
Current
75.200
Gap
-76.4%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
45.29%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.37%
x
D/(D+E)
54.71%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend3.00%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
18.412
60%DCF Value
17.254
Blended Intrinsic
17.717
Value Decomposition
33%
67%
Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SSH

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

31
Weak
Accrual Quality
82
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

0.23
High Risk
DSRI
4.740
GMI
1.013
AQI
0.787
SGI
0.204
DEPI
1.896
SGAI
2.668
TATA
0.045
LVGI
0.907

The forensic assessment of SSH indicates significant red flags regarding potential earnings manipulation, as evidenced by a Beneish M-Score of 0.2292, which is well above the manipulation threshold of -1.78. Additionally, the company's earnings quality score of 30.5/100, particularly low cash conversion and receivables metrics, raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of 0.2292 indicates potential earnings manipulation, significantly above the threshold of -1.78.
  • DSRI at 4.7395 suggests excessive growth in receivables relative to sales, indicating potential revenue recognition issues.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 30.5/100 with 0.0/100 in receivables and revenue metrics points to severe issues in earnings reliability.
Positive Signals
  • GMI of 1.0134 indicates stable gross margins, which could suggest some operational strength.
  • Ownership structure shows a single institution (Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Sunshine) holding 100%, which can lead to consistent strategic direction.
Ownership Risk

The complete ownership by Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Sunshine may pose risks related to lack of oversight and transparency, as minority shareholders have minimal influence.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence before investing in SSH, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and receivables management. Consider monitoring for any changes in the ownership structure or governance practices.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
3.67
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.12
Positive
Composite
34
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+27.4%
Volatility
92.2%
Max Drawdown
-42.2%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
-68.66P/E
P/B5.11
P/S47.06
ROE-7.2%
ROA-3.1%
EPS-1095.33
BVPS14729.26
Gross Margin45.7%
Net Margin-68.6%
D/E0.99
Current Ratio2.45
Rev Growth-79.6%
Profit Growth-151.1%
EV/EBITDA259.37
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
375.0M
Charter Capital
3750.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SSH — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Sunshine
Inst
100.0%
374.9 trieu
Đỗ Thị Định
Indiv
1.8%
6.7 trieu
Đỗ Văn Bắc
Indiv
1.0%
3.8 trieu
Bùi Văn Tư
Indiv
0.4%
1.5 trieu
LƯƠNG THÀNH LONG
Indiv
0.4%
1.5 trieu
nguyen-dinh-duc
Indiv
0.2%
750.000
Board & Management
Đỗ Thị Định1.8%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc
Bùi Văn Tư0.4%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
LƯƠNG THÀNH LONG0.4%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Đình Phương
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Nguyễn Thị Phương Loan
Kế toán trưởng
Đỗ Anh Tuấn
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Xuân Anh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Hồng Hạnh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trần Đăng Khoa
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Dương Thị Thu Hiền
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Lê Thị Hoàng Phương
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thu Thuỷ
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hoàng Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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