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KSF

Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Sunshine

VietnamReal EstateBất động sảnHNXCT
68.300
VND · Close 3 Nov 2026

Calibrated intrinsic value vs last close

Illustrative estimate
Close below calibrated value
+16.6%Calibrated value vs last close
At last close+500%
Last close (VND)
68.300
Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
79.666

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Earnings-capitalised value

Not available: the company reported a loss last year or its shares have too short a price history.

How it is calculated

  1. 1
    Measure the gap

    Between the model and the last close.

  2. 2
    Check the record2015–2024

    What gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year.

  3. 3
    Apply to the close

    That return is applied to the last close.

Keep in mind

  • For illustration only: not a validated forecast.
  • No uncertainty range: the estimate is a single figure.
  • Older record: it has not been re-measured on the current data.
Model reliability
Low
Model fitInput stabilityRisk checks
High requires the model’s diagnostic criteria to be met.
Probability of outperforming peers
49.7%
12 monthsHistorical calibration
Chance the return beats the median return of its sector peers.
Assessed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices

These assessments address different questions. Neither establishes that the displayed valuation is correct or guarantees a future return.

12-month sector-relative outlook

+0.7percentage points
Real Estate12 monthsBack-test 2015–2024

Median 12-month return difference versus Real Estate peers, for model gaps like this one.

  • Not an absolute return forecast.
  • Not a price target.
  • A stock can underperform its sector and still rise.
Computed 30 Oct 2026Not updated with daily prices
Sector calibration span · percentage points
−2.6+12.9
  • The sector’s historical range, not a prediction interval for this stock.
  • Actual returns can fall outside it.

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Bất động sản→Real Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector “Bất động sản” maps to the real estate group.
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x RNAV proxy + 60% x DCF Value

Developers often carry land banks at historical cost under VAS, so book value can understate asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (book value with its property share marked up 1.5×) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

Technical details
Why this model

RE developers carry large land inventories at historical cost; cash flows depend on project delivery timing. RNAV captures hidden land value, while DCF captures earnings power. The leverage screen guards against over-leveraged developers.

How it works

RNAV proxy: the property share of BVPS (investment property, fixed assets and inventories over total assets) × 1.5 plus the rest at book, or 1.25× all of book when that share is 10% or less or unknown, cut by up to 50% as D/E rises above 2. DCF: 5-year projection on median cash flow with CAPM-derived WACC. If D/E > 3 or interest coverage < 1.5, WACC is increased by 2%. Final value = 40% RNAV + 60% DCF.

Best for

Property developers and real estate firms with significant land banks recorded at below-market historical cost.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.36%
+
Betasector default
1.110
x
ERP
4.38%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
11.97%
Ke
11.97%
x
E/(D+E)
72.98%
+
Kd(1-t)
2.22%
x
D/(D+E)
27.02%
=
WACC
10.00%
2
Growth Estimate
Sector Default3.50%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation

We take the model’s gap to the last close, read what gaps of that size went on to earn over the following year in our 2015 to 2024 record, and apply that to the last close.

Last close (VND)→68.300
Calibrated value vs last close→+16.6%

Last close × (1 + calibrated gap / 100)

Calibrated intrinsic value (VND)
79.666
What feeds each step— click a source to highlight it in the statements
Discount rate (WACC)10.00%high risk: no
Growth rate3.50%growth method: default
Base cash flow4.5 nghìn tỷone off strip ratio: 0.87

DCF Sensitivity

Illustrative calibrated values from the standalone DCF scenarios below, anchored to the same last close. These scenarios leave out the other parts of a blended model and do not reproduce the headline value.

WACC \ Growth0.5%2.0%3.5%5.0%6.5%
8.0%83.38483.38483.38483.66988.953
9.0%83.38483.38483.38483.38483.384
10.0%79.66679.66679.66679.66683.384
11.0%79.66679.66679.66679.66679.666
12.0%79.66679.66679.66679.66679.666
Above market priceBelow market priceCurrent estimate
Feeds valuation:Cost of capitalGrowthModel inputsFinal calculation
Line item2026202520242023202220212020
CURRENT ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·81,39413,42513,0339,1246,8747,221
Cash and cash equivalents (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·4,80138617110037781
Short-term investments (Bn. VND)Net debt bridge
·2,2492,1531,4129741,0570
Accounts receivable (Bn. VND)
·57,6979,3239,2177,6295,0056,615
Prepayments to suppliers (Bn. VND)
·13,3172,7112,6672,6513,0013,149
Net Inventories
·14,6878661,903265375433
Inventories, Net (Bn. VND)
·14,6898681,903265375435
Other current assets
·1,9596973301566192
LONG-TERM ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·38,7507,1335,2133,4773,4053,965
Long-term trade receivables (Bn. VND)
·8,2141,0591,0181,016996990
Other long-term receivables (Bn. VND)
·6,8751,0401,0181,016996990
Fixed assets (Bn. VND)
·5153488268531
Tangible fixed assets
·4893326849340
Intagible fixed assets
·25171419191
Investment in properties
·1,16341231389176261
Long-term investments (Bn. VND)
·8,7602,4311,014252253554
Investments in associate companies
·2,6531,658000394
Other long-term assets (Bn. VND)
·5,713206255255255160
Less: Provision for diminuation in value of long term investments
·−2−0.8−4−3−20
Other non-current assets
·968186101128
Long-term prepayments (Bn. VND)
·898186101128
TOTAL ASSETS (Bn. VND)
·120,14420,55818,24612,60110,27911,186
LIABILITIES (Bn. VND)
·100,28013,67910,9675,8394,0339,303
Current liabilities (Bn. VND)
·52,7748,5717,2353,1363,0675,864
Short-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·9,1607372,4736601,1163,948
Advances from customers (Bn. VND)
·24,5565,6782,610698460519
Long-term liabilities (Bn. VND)
·47,5065,1083,7312,7029663,439
Long-term borrowings (Bn. VND)Discount rate (WACC) +1
·14,4642092231899413,429
OWNER'S EQUITY(Bn.VND)Discount rate (WACC)
·19,8636,8797,2796,7626,2461,882
Capital and reserves (Bn. VND)
·19,8636,8797,2796,7626,2461,882
Paid-in capital (Bn. VND)
·8,9983,0003,0003,0003,0002,500
Other Reserves
·−2,010−22−291−21652−1,317
Undistributed earnings (Bn. VND)
·10,1672,0311,2681,129765408
TOTAL RESOURCES (Bn. VND)
·120,14420,55818,24612,60110,27911,186
Short-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·19,8643,8223,8263,4511,680520
Long-term loans receivables (Bn. VND)
·1,340190000
Common shares (Bn. VND)
·8,9983,0003,0003,0003,0002,500
MINORITY INTERESTSNet debt bridge
·2,7121,8703,3022,8492,428291

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025
82
Good
Accrual Quality
100
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
79
Revenue Quality
4

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025
Highest band
M 3.00 · 98th pctile vs VN companies
YoY ▲ +4.07
Conservative vs VN peersUnusual accounting movement
Compare across the whole market

Ranked vs Vietnamese peers. The −1.78 Beneish cutoff is US-calibrated; ~28% of VN stocks exceed it.

DSRI
0.757
GMI
0.769
AQI
0.964
SGI
8.179
DEPI
1.145
SGAI
0.515
TATA
−0.120
LVGI
1.310

Checks measured on Vietnamese companies · FY2025

Cash conversion, 3 yearsOperating cash flow / net profit
3.0284th pctile
Receivables outside the trade cyclePrepayments to suppliers, loans and other long-term receivables / total assets
34.4%96th pctile
Accumulated losses / paid-in capitalUndistributed earnings below zero
None
Consecutive years of net lossProfit after tax of the parent
0
Owner's equityWithout the non-controlling interest
Positive

Percentiles rank each fiscal year against Vietnamese non-financial companies (0 lowest, 100 highest). Over FY2015-2024, low cash conversion and a large share of receivables outside the trade cycle came before more listing trouble and more net losses the next year.

Statutory loss tests (Decree 155/2020/NĐ-CP, Art. 120(1)(e), amended by Decree 245/2025/NĐ-CP): a HOSE or HNX listing is cancelled when the audited annual statements show net losses in each of the latest 3 years, accumulated losses above the paid-in charter capital, or negative owner's equity. Read here from the annual statements as the data vendor publishes them.

The company shows multiple accounting signals that merit scrutiny: a high Beneish M-Score of 3.0009 (98th percentile versus Vietnamese peers; year-over-year change +4.07) driven by very large SGI (8.1792) and LVGI (1.3104), and a very low Revenue-quality subscore (3.8/100). Offsetting signals include strong accruals, cash-conversion and receivables metrics (Accruals quality 100/100; Cash conversion 100/100; Receivables quality 100/100) and a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9. The Altman Z-Score is 1.30 (in the distress zone).

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score = 3.0009 (measures likelihood of earnings manipulation using an eight-variable model); this is in the 98th Vietnam-peer percentile (higher = more aggressive accounting among VN peers) and increased by +4.07 year-over-year (the trajectory moved markedly). Note: the -1.78 US cutoff is not Vietnamese-calibrated, so weight peer percentile and YoY change.
  • SGI (Sales Growth Index) = 8.1792 (measures sales growth; values >>1 indicate rapid revenue growth relative to the prior year) — unusually large and a primary driver of the M-Score increase.
  • Revenue quality = 3.8/100 (an earnings-quality subscore; this is very low and indicates reported revenue is the weakest component of the company’s earnings quality profile).
  • Receivables outside the trade cycle = 34.4% of total assets (96th VN percentile; this line includes prepayments to suppliers, loans receivable and other long-term receivables — a high share of non-trade receivables relative to assets).
  • Cash conversion (operating cash flow / net profit, 3-year) = 3.02 (84th VN percentile; low value means profits are not translating into operating cash flow over three years).
  • Altman Z-Score = 1.30 (measures distance to bankruptcy; value in the ‘distress’ zone under the Z-Score model).
Positive Signals
  • Accruals quality = 100.0/100 (measures how much of earnings are accrual-based; a high score indicates low abnormal accruals and cleaner earnings from the accruals perspective).
  • Cash conversion score = 100.0/100 (from the earnings-quality breakdown; indicates good short-term cash/earnings alignment on that scoring metric despite the three-year cash-conversion ratio being low in the VN peer rank—interpretation depends on the scoring method used).
  • Receivables quality = 100.0/100 (in the earnings-quality components; suggests the aging/recognition approach to trade receivables scored well even though there is a large stock of receivables outside the trade cycle).
  • TATA (Total Accruals to Total Assets) = -0.1199 (this Beneish component measures accruals: negative indicates net cash-based earnings movement rather than large positive accrual buildups).
  • Piotroski F-Score = 6/9 (a neutral-to-favorable score on fundamental operational and profitability signals).
  • No accumulated losses; owner’s equity (parent, excluding minorities) positive; 0 consecutive years of parent net loss up to FY2025 — statutory loss tests under Decree 155/2020 (as amended) are not met (a factual statement about the published statements).
Ownership Risk

Ownership is highly concentrated: Đỗ Anh Tuấn holds 61.4% (individual); related individuals (Đỗ Thị Định 4.2%, Đỗ Văn Trường 4.0%, Đỗ Thị Hồng Nhung 0.7%) bring the named-family block to roughly 70.3% of shares among the top four family members. Such concentration and apparent family control increase the potential for related-party transactions and group-structure effects in the accounts (a descriptive fact, not a recommendation).

To check in the filings
  • Compare the FY2025 line(s) for ‘Prepayments to suppliers’, ‘Loans receivable’ and ‘Other long-term receivables’ in the statement of financial position to the related-party disclosures and the notes that explain composition and counterparties (to understand the 34.4% of assets classified as receivables outside the trade cycle).
  • Reconcile consolidated operating cash flow and parent profit in the cash-flow statement and the notes for FY2023–FY2025 to substantiate the 3-year cash-conversion ratio of 3.02 (verify which items — e.g., changes in working capital, one-offs, non-cash items — drive the gap between profit and cash flows).
  • Examine the revenue recognition note(s) and schedules (including segment and contract disclosures, if any) for FY2025 to assess drivers of the very low Revenue-quality score (3.8/100) and the components of SGI = 8.1792 (which indicates very high reported sales growth).
  • Review related-party transactions, intercompany balances and guarantees in the notes and the ‘transactions with related parties’ schedule for FY2025 to check for large flows that could explain elevated receivables outside the trade cycle and leverage-growth signals (LVGI = 1.3104).

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.30
Distress Zone
Sharpe
−0.45
Negative
Composite
56
50 to 69
Piotroski F-Score Breakdown
✓Net Income > 0
✓Operating CF > 0
✓ROA Rising
✓OCF > Net Income
✗Lower Leverage
✗Better Liquidity
✗No Dilution
✓Margin Up
✓Turnover Up
DuPont Decomposition
Tax Burden0.79×Interest Burden0.99×Op. Margin0.56×Turnover0.17×Leverage6.05=ROE44.8%
Price Risk
Momentum
−9.5%
Volatility
29.9%
Max Drawdown
−37.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
7.49P/E
P/B
3.71
P/S
3.15
ROE
76.7%
ROA
12.1%
EPS
9.449
BVPS
19.061
Gross Margin
65.0%
Net Margin
44.1%
D/E
1.19
Current Ratio
1.54
Rev Growth
+720.3%
Profit Growth
+1120.3%
EV/EBITDA
7.02
Div Yield
—

Company Overview

Shares outstanding
900M
Charter Capital
8,998B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT
Computed 30/10/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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