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Consumer sector

TCO

Consumer
Công ty Cổ phần TCO Holdings
Thực phẩm và đồ uống/Sản xuất thực phẩmCT
13.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
5.959
Current
13.500
Gap
-55.9%
ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CTThực phẩm và đồ uốngConsumer
Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Thực phẩm và đồ uống" maps to the consumer group
ModelFCF-Based DCF
Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Distressed Valuation
Negative Intrinsic Value
BVPS
11.919
x
Discount
50%
=
Floor Value
11.919

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TCO

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

4
Poor
Accrual Quality
18
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
0
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.13
Moderate
DSRI
1.222
GMI
0.328
AQI
1.723
SGI
0.248
DEPI
0.868
SGAI
3.403
TATA
0.269
LVGI
0.860

The Beneish M-Score of -2.1348 indicates a significant likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it falls well below the threshold of -1.78. Coupled with a very low earnings quality score of 4.4/100 and poor cash conversion metrics, TCO presents substantial risks for investors in the current Vietnamese market context.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1348 indicates potential earnings manipulation.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 4.4/100 reflects extremely poor earnings quality.
  • Cash conversion metrics are at 0.0/100, suggesting severe issues in converting earnings to cash.
Positive Signals
  • DSRI of 1.2218 suggests that the company is managing its inventory levels reasonably, as it is not excessively high.
  • SGI of 0.2476 indicates that sales growth is not overly aggressive, which could imply a more sustainable growth strategy.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders are primarily individuals, with the largest holding at 20.7% by Nguyễn Thái Huy, which may lead to concentrated decision-making risks. This structure can also increase vulnerability to potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and consider avoiding TCO until there are clear improvements in earnings quality and transparency. A thorough review of financial statements and management practices is recommended before any investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
1.04
Distress Zone
Sharpe
0.35
Positive
Composite
12
Poor
Price Risk
Momentum
-15.0%
Volatility
41.0%
Max Drawdown
-40.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.27P/E
P/B1.13
P/S0.48
ROE10.6%
ROA2.3%
EPS1197.73
BVPS11918.79
Gross Margin8.5%
Net Margin4.3%
D/E2.49
Current Ratio0.96
Rev Growth-75.2%
Profit Growth76.3%
EV/EBITDA16.62
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
31.3M
Charter Capital
313.2B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Thực phẩm và đồ uống
Industry (ICB L3)
Sản xuất thực phẩm
Sub-industry
Nuôi trồng nông & hải sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TCO — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Nguyễn Thái Huy
Indiv
20.7%
6.5 trieu
Nguyễn Thị Nhung
Indiv
5.0%
829.150
Phạm Duy Như Quỳnh
Indiv
4.9%
919.534
Nguyễn Thị Kim Phượng
Indiv
4.4%
814.598
Nguyễn Duy Dinh
Indiv
4.4%
818.140
Hoàng Anh Dũng
Indiv
3.4%
631.000
Trần Thị Thùy Dương
Indiv
3.3%
615.146
Lê Hoài Nam
Indiv
3.1%
576.000
Lê Thái Cường
Indiv
2.6%
433.408
Lê Hồng Ngọc
Indiv
2.2%
370.940
Bùi Chí Hùng
Indiv
2.1%
383.841
Đào Kim Phương
Indiv
2.1%
356.800
Trần Thị Kim Hồng
Indiv
1.8%
310.000
Vũ Thị Phú
Indiv
0.8%
140.000
Nguyễn Mạnh Hải
Indiv
0.7%
130.500
Hoàng Thị Ngọc Lan
Indiv
0.6%
110.000
Tạ Thu Lan
Indiv
0.4%
70.000
Nguyễn Văn Tưởng
Indiv
0.2%
34.000
Nguyễn Đức Hải
Indiv
0.2%
33.164
nguyen-thanh-le
Indiv
0.1%
26.000
Đinh Ngọc Phương
Indiv
0.1%
22.000
Lê Vĩnh Trương
Indiv
0.1%
20.000
Board & Management
Hoàng Thị Ngọc Lan0.6%
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thu Thủy
Kế toán trưởng
Cao Thu Hằng
Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Trần Tuấn Hùng
Trưởng Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Phạm Thanh Bình
Tổng Giám đốc
Ngô Trọng Nghĩa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Thành viên Ban Kiểm toán nội bộ
Đàm Mạnh Cường
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
PHAN THANH BÌNH
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đào Việt Anh
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Khánh Toàn
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Phạm Văn Huy
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Tuấn Điệp
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phan Quốc Bình
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
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