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Construction sector

TKA

Construction
Công ty Cổ phần Bao bì Tân Khánh An
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp/Hàng công nghiệpCT
3.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
49.730
Current
3.000
Gap
+500.0%
ModelEV EBITDA DCF BLEND

Valuation Breakdown

CTHàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệpConstruction
Classified as construction because ICB sector "Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp" maps to the construction group
ModelEV/EBITDA + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 50% x EV/EBITDA Value + 50% x DCF Value

Construction and industrial firms have characteristics of both cyclical businesses (lumpy project-based revenue) and growth companies (expanding order books). This model blends two approaches 50/50: EV/EBITDA valuation (captures current earning power relative to peers) and FCF-based DCF (captures future cash generation potential). If EV/EBITDA produces a negative value (debt exceeds enterprise value), only DCF is used.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.100
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
12.20%
Ke
12.20%
x
E/(D+E)
65.31%
+
Kd(1-t)
6.39%
x
D/(D+E)
34.69%
=
WACC
10.18%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend5.61%
Growth decays 12%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
50%EV/EBITDA Value
22.292
50%DCF Value
77.167
Blended Intrinsic
49.730
Value Decomposition
35%
65%
Explicit period (35%)Terminal value (65%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TKA

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

45
Weak
Accrual Quality
39
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.82
Moderate
DSRI
1.043
GMI
1.096
AQI
0.000
SGI
1.007
DEPI
1.822
SGAI
0.885
TATA
0.178
LVGI
0.937

The forensic assessment of TKA reveals significant red flags indicating potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -1.8193, which exceeds the manipulation threshold. Coupled with a low earnings quality score of 44.8/100, the financial health of the company appears questionable, especially in terms of cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.8193 indicates potential earnings manipulation as it is below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 44.8/100, with an alarming eq_cash_conv score of 0.0/100, suggests severe issues with cash flow relative to earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables and margin metrics are strong at 100.0/100, indicating that the company is effectively managing its receivables and maintaining profitability margins.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily skewed, with 83.9% held by a state-owned enterprise, which may lead to potential conflicts of interest and lack of accountability in financial reporting.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence, particularly focusing on cash flow statements and revenue recognition practices before considering any investment in TKA.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
3/9
Weak
Z-Score
3.70
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-2.76
Negative
Composite
58
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
-0.0%
Volatility
1.9%
Max Drawdown
-0.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
1.09P/E
P/B0.20
P/S0.06
ROE18.6%
ROA12.3%
EPS2762.60
BVPS14966.54
Gross Margin14.2%
Net Margin5.9%
D/E0.48
Current Ratio2.63
Rev Growth0.7%
Profit Growth-2.7%
EV/EBITDA0.31
Div Yield4.5%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
3.8M
Charter Capital
38.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Hàng & Dịch vụ Công nghiệp
Industry (ICB L3)
Hàng công nghiệp
Sub-industry
Containers & Đóng gói
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TKA — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Khánh Việt - Công ty TNHH MTV
State
83.9%
3.2 trieu
Phạm Thanh Hà
Indiv
0.2%
6.100
Trần Anh Giang
Indiv
0.1%
4.100
Board & Management
Phạm Thanh Hà0.2%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Giám đốc
Trần Anh Giang0.1%
Phó Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Văn Tuấn
Kế toán trưởng
Nguyễn Quang Long
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Hồng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Bùi Việt Đức
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Hà Quang Minh
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

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