ADS — Intrinsic Value ₫6.300

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Consumer

Công ty Cổ phần DAMSAN

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng/Hàng cá nhânCT

8.190

VND · Last close

Valuation Verdict

Overvalued

Low

-120%Fair Value+120%

Intrinsic Value

6.300

Current

8.190

Gap

-23.1%

ModelFCF DCF

Valuation Breakdown

CT→Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng→Consumer

Classified as consumer because ICB sector "Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng" maps to the consumer group

ModelFCF-Based DCF

Value = Sum of [FCF / (1+WACC)^t] + Terminal Value / (1+WACC)^n

A classic Discounted Cash Flow model built on Free Cash Flow (FCF), the actual cash a business generates after all operating expenses and capital expenditures. Future FCF is projected for 10 years with gradually decaying growth, then discounted back to today's value using WACC. This is the gold standard of intrinsic valuation: it values the company based on what it can actually deliver to shareholders, independent of market sentiment.

Weighted Avg Cost of Capital

Risk-Free (Rf)

4.50%

Betasector default

0.800

ERP

4.25%

CRP

2.75%

Cost of Equity (Ke)

10.10%

E/(D+E)

36.77%

Kd(1-t)

7.00%

D/(D+E)

63.23%

WACC

10.00%

Growth Estimate

fundamental firm blend4.55%

Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal

Model Inputs

Base FCF→74.99B

Projection years→10

Valuation

Base FCF

74.99B

Growth Rate

4.55%

WACC

10.00%

Terminal Growth

4.00%

DCF Value

6.300

Value Decomposition

43%

57%

Explicit period (43%)Terminal value (57%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — ADS

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

Weak

Accrual QualityLow accruals vs reported earnings

Cash ConversionOperating cash flow vs net income

ReceivablesDSO trend vs revenue growth

100

Margin StabilityConsistency of profit margins

Revenue QualityConsistency of revenue growth

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.07

Moderate

DSRI

1.093

GMI

0.658

AQI

1.031

SGI

1.135

DEPI

0.976

SGAI

0.910

TATA

0.072

LVGI

0.938

The Beneish M-Score of -2.074 indicates a lower likelihood of manipulation, yet the earnings quality score of 45.3 suggests significant concerns regarding the sustainability of earnings. The company's cash conversion and revenue metrics are particularly weak, raising red flags about financial health.

Red Flags

Earnings Quality Score of 45.3 indicates potential issues with earnings sustainability, particularly with cash conversion at 0.0/100.
SGI at 1.1347 suggests higher-than-average sales growth, which may not be supported by cash flow as indicated by the low cash conversion score.

Positive Signals

Beneish M-Score of -2.074 is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78, indicating a lower likelihood of earnings manipulation.
Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 suggests effective management of receivables, which is a positive indicator of operational efficiency.

Ownership Risk

The ownership structure shows a concentration among a few individuals and institutions, with the largest shareholder holding 12.1%. This could lead to potential governance issues and conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor cash flow performance and consider the implications of the low earnings quality score before making investment decisions. A thorough review of operational efficiency and governance practices is advised.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score

5/9

Neutral

Z-Score

1.49

Distress Zone

Sharpe

-0.15

Negative

Composite

Weak

Price Risk

Momentum

-2.7%

Volatility

25.3%

Max Drawdown

-26.5%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025

6.30P/E

P/B0.65

P/S0.34

ROE10.6%

ROA3.9%

EPS1299.77

BVPS12684.49

Gross Margin12.5%

Net Margin5.4%

D/E1.46

Current Ratio1.39

Rev Growth13.5%

Profit Growth98.3%

EV/EBITDA5.53

Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares

76.4M

Charter Capital

763.9B VND

Sector (ICB L2)

Hàng cá nhân & Gia dụng

Industry (ICB L3)

Hàng cá nhân

Sub-industry

Hàng May mặc

Company Type

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for ADS — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders

Vũ Huy Đông

Indiv

12.1%

9.2 trieu

Công ty TNHH Thương mại và Đầu tư Xây dựng ACC

Inst

5.9%

1.5 trieu

Công ty Cổ phần Đầu Tư Xây Dựng Và Thương Mại Đức Tuấn

Inst

5.3%

4.1 trieu

Đỗ Đức Khang

Indiv

5.3%

4.1 trieu

Đỗ Văn Khôi

Indiv

5.2%

4.0 trieu

Công ty Tài chính Tổng hợp Cổ phần Điện Lực

Inst

5.0%

1.4 trieu

Hoàng Kim Thu

Indiv

4.9%

3.7 trieu

nguyen-le-hung

Indiv

4.7%

3.6 trieu

Công ty TNHH Golf Long Hưng

Inst

2.1%

1.6 trieu

Vũ Huy Đức

Indiv

2.0%

1.5 trieu

Vương Quốc Dương

Indiv

1.5%

1.1 trieu

Lê Văn Tuấn

Indiv

1.1%

828.664

Công ty Cổ phần Xây dựng Đức Dũng Thái Bình

Inst

1.0%

730.500

Nguyễn Thị Oanh

Indiv

0.8%

619.525

Lương Thị Dung

Indiv

0.6%

421.791

Đỗ Thị Khuyên

Indiv

0.5%

365.144

Lê Xuân Chiến

Indiv

0.4%

341.791

Đào Thị Duyên

Indiv

0.3%

246.778

Vũ Thị Thoa

Indiv

0.3%

203.665

Vũ Phương Diệp

Indiv

0.2%

121.670

Vũ Văn Hiệu

Indiv

0.1%

28.350

Board & Management

Vũ Huy Đông12.1%

Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị

Đỗ Văn Khôi5.2%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Nguyễn Lê Hùng4.7%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị

Vũ Huy Đức2.0%

Tổng Giám đốc

Vương Quốc Dương1.5%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Sản xuất

Lê Văn Tuấn1.1%

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Lê Xuân Chiến0.4%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc Tài chính - Kế toán/Kế toán trưởng

Vũ Phương Diệp0.2%

Phó Tổng Giám đốc

Vũ Thùy Linh

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Phạm Thị Hồi

Trưởng Ban kiểm soát

Tạ Thị Thu Hiền

Thành viên Ban kiểm soát

Bùi Thị Thu Huyền

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin

Trần Thị Quỳnh Hoa

Phụ trách Công bố thông tin/Người phụ trách quản trị công ty

Phạm Văn Thượng

Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập

Top connections

VFS9.9%TBR5.5%HHC5.0%S555.0%CHP5.0%FCN5.0%ABB5.0%GEG4.7%VWS4.5%TTZ3.6%UEM3.0%MDG1.1%

Computed 12/04/2026