VNVALUEVNVALUE
Updated weekly
Back to Dashboard
Utilities sector

TLP

Utilities
Tổng Công ty Thương mại Xuất nhập khẩu Thanh Lễ - CTCP
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
7.900
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
5.819
Current
7.900
Gap
-26.3%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend1.79%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS311
Payout ratio63.7%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
311
Base Growth
1.79%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
5.819
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TLP

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

23
Poor
Accrual Quality
64
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
33
Margin Stability
18
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2024

-2.62
Low Risk
DSRI
1.319
GMI
0.977
AQI
0.833
SGI
1.017
DEPI
0.949
SGAI
1.206
TATA
-0.073
LVGI
0.976

TLP exhibits several concerning indicators suggesting potential earnings manipulation, particularly with a Beneish M-Score of -2.6247, which is below the manipulation threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 54.2 indicates moderate earnings quality, with strong cash conversion metrics but significant weaknesses in revenue and margin quality.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.6247 indicates potential manipulation, significantly below the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings quality metrics show a score of 0.0/100 for both eq_margin and eq_revenue, highlighting severe issues in revenue recognition and profitability.
Positive Signals
  • Strong cash conversion score of 100.0/100 suggests effective cash management despite revenue quality concerns.
  • Ownership by the state (Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bình Dương) at 36.0% may provide stability and support for corporate governance.
Ownership Risk

The significant state ownership at 36.0% could imply a level of oversight and stability, but it may also lead to bureaucratic inefficiencies and potential conflicts of interest in decision-making.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor TLP's financial disclosures for signs of earnings manipulation and consider the implications of its weak revenue and margin quality. A cautious approach is advised, potentially waiting for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
2.50
Grey Zone
Sharpe
0.01
Positive
Composite
33
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+11.8%
Volatility
77.4%
Max Drawdown
-21.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.60P/E
P/B0.72
P/S0.09
ROE6.4%
ROA1.7%
EPS680.81
BVPS10939.09
Gross Margin4.3%
Net Margin0.7%
D/E2.26
Current Ratio1.05
Rev Growth6.0%
Profit Growth121.9%
EV/EBITDA10.76
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
236.6M
Charter Capital
2366.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TLP — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bình Dương
State
36.0%
85.2 trieu
Lê Trọng Hiếu
Indiv
4.9%
11.6 trieu
Công ty TNHH Thương Mại Dịch Vụ Thiết Bị Hướng Dương
Inst
2.8%
6.7 trieu
Nguyễn Viết Trọng Nhân
Indiv
2.8%
6.7 trieu
Board & Management
Lê Trọng Hiếu4.9%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Kim Thành
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Ngọc Quỳnh Giao
Kế toán trưởng
Đặng Văn Đoàn
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Thị Băng Trang
Tổng Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Đình Giáp
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Đoàn Minh Quang
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Khánh Hà
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thúy Hằng
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Tuấn Vũ
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
LÊ VĂN TÁM
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Tiến Dũng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Xuân Hòa
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

vnvalue is a methodology engine — not an advisor. Every number is the deterministic output of a published formula applied to public financial data. Nothing on this page constitutes investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.

All data, models, and outputs are provided AS IS without warranty of any kind. You are solely responsible for your investment decisions. Past performance and historical valuations are not indicative of future results.

By using vnvalue you accept the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Full disclaimer →