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Utilities sector

CLW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp nước Chợ Lớn
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
48.000
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
38.842
Current
48.000
Gap
-19.1%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend8.79%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.620
Payout ratio39.6%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.620
Base Growth
8.79%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
38.842
Value Decomposition
24%
76%
Explicit period (24%)Terminal value (76%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — CLW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

64
Fair
Accrual Quality
86
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
59
Margin Stability
76
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.61
Low Risk
DSRI
1.011
GMI
0.959
AQI
1.146
SGI
0.979
DEPI
0.855
SGAI
1.038
TATA
-0.035
LVGI
0.916

The Beneish M-Score of -2.6115 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is well below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality score of 64.3 suggests some concerns, particularly with revenue recognition, which could indicate potential issues in financial reporting.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 64.3/100, particularly low eq_revenue score of 0.0/100 indicates potential issues with revenue recognition.
  • DSRI of 1.0113 is slightly above 1, suggesting potential overstatement of receivables relative to sales.
Positive Signals
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.6115 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation.
  • High eq_cash_conv score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash conversion relative to earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with Tổng Công ty Cấp nước Sài Gòn holding 51.0%, which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest. However, the presence of institutional ownership may provide some level of oversight.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor revenue recognition practices and consider the implications of concentrated ownership on governance. A deeper analysis of cash flow statements is recommended to validate the sustainability of earnings.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
4.31
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.33
Positive
Composite
54
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+11.4%
Volatility
43.1%
Max Drawdown
-28.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.98P/E
P/B2.35
P/S0.49
ROE21.8%
ROA10.3%
EPS4371.93
BVPS20383.30
Gross Margin15.7%
Net Margin4.5%
D/E1.02
Current Ratio1.23
Rev Growth-2.1%
Profit Growth5.4%
EV/EBITDA5.63
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
13.0M
Charter Capital
130.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for CLW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Tổng Công ty Cấp nước Sài Gòn
Inst
51.0%
6.6 trieu
Lê Huy Hùng
Indiv
14.0%
1.8 trieu
Huỳnh Tuấn Anh
Indiv
12.8%
1.7 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Thương Mại N.T.P
Inst
11.1%
1.4 trieu
Hồ Lê Minh
Indiv
7.5%
973.570
Công ty Đầu tư Tài chính Nhà nước Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh
Inst
2.3%
300.500
Công ty Cổ phần Địa ốc Chợ Lớn
Inst
2.3%
300.000
Hồ Lê Nhật
Indiv
0.4%
48.900
Board & Management
Lê Huy Hùng14.0%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Huỳnh Tuấn Anh12.8%
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Đặng Đức Hiền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Hoàng Thanh Bình
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Anh Kiệt
Phó Giám đốc Kỹ thuật
Hồ Kim Phượng
Phó Giám đốc Kinh doanh
Vũ Thị Như Quỳnh
Kế toán trưởng
Trương Minh Phương Ánh
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty
Phạm Mạnh Đức
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Trần Văn Châu
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Hứa Trọng Nghi
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Trọng Thuần
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thanh Phong
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị độc lập
Trương Thị Thanh Nhung
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Ngọc Lương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Kim Xuyến
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Thị Bảo Châu
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Computed 12/04/2026
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