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Utilities sector

SFC

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Nhiên liệu Sài Gòn
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
19.500
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
31.724
Current
19.500
Gap
+62.7%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend1.71%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS1.700
Payout ratio78.6%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
1.700
Base Growth
1.71%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
31.724
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — SFC

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

54
Fair
Accrual Quality
81
Cash Conversion
40
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
29
Revenue Quality
21

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-1.78
Elevated
DSRI
1.549
GMI
0.874
AQI
1.171
SGI
0.898
DEPI
0.974
SGAI
1.133
TATA
0.047
LVGI
0.722

The Beneish M-Score of -1.7794 is just above the threshold for potential earnings manipulation, indicating a heightened risk of financial misrepresentation. Additionally, the earnings quality score of 54.1 suggests mixed performance, particularly with low cash conversion metrics.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -1.7794 is just above the manipulation threshold, indicating potential earnings manipulation risk.
  • Earnings quality cash conversion score at 39.8/100 is significantly low, suggesting potential issues with cash flow relative to reported earnings.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality score of 100.0/100 indicates strong management of receivables, which is a positive sign for liquidity.
  • Institutional ownership is high at 91.0%, which may provide stability and oversight.
Ownership Risk

The top shareholders include significant state and institutional ownership, which may mitigate some risks associated with management practices but also indicates potential for state influence on corporate governance.

Recommendation

Investors should closely monitor SFC's financial disclosures and cash flow statements for signs of manipulation. Consider a cautious approach, potentially waiting for improved earnings quality metrics before making significant investments.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
6/9
Neutral
Z-Score
8.77
Safe Zone
Sharpe
-0.20
Negative
Composite
50
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
-7.8%
Volatility
47.2%
Max Drawdown
-30.3%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
10.16P/E
P/B1.31
P/S0.15
ROE12.9%
ROA8.6%
EPS1918.70
BVPS14907.56
Gross Margin6.4%
Net Margin1.5%
D/E0.39
Current Ratio2.03
Rev Growth-10.2%
Profit Growth12.3%
EV/EBITDA6.95
Div Yield8.7%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
11.3M
Charter Capital
112.9B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Phân phối xăng dầu & khí đốt
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for SFC — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Công ty Cổ phần Xăng Dầu Và Dịch Vụ Hàng Hải S.T.S
Inst
51.0%
5.8 trieu
Tổng Công ty Đầu Tư Và Kinh Doanh Vốn Nhà Nước
State
20.0%
2.3 trieu
Công Ty TNHH Một Thành Viên Dầu Khí Thành Phố Hồ Chí Minh
Inst
20.0%
2.3 trieu
Lê Trọng Hiếu
Indiv
12.7%
1.4 trieu
Công ty TNHH Quản lý Quỹ đầu tư Chứng khoán Đông Á
Inst
1.3%
146.277
Nguyễn Thành Chánh
Indiv
0.9%
97.300
Lê Quang Liêm
Indiv
0.8%
85.000
Công ty TNHH MTV Chứng Khoán Ngân hàng Số Vikki
Inst
0.6%
67.937
Trần Đình Thảo
Indiv
0.2%
17.620
Trần Hoàng Phượng
Indiv
0.1%
17.424
Cao Văn Phát
Indiv
0.1%
11.811
Board & Management
Lê Trọng Hiếu12.7%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Thị Chung
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Lê Thị Kim Chi
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Trần Hiền
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Ngọc Thạch Anh
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Phan Ngọc Hùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Bùi Hoài Châu
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Trịnh Bá Bộ
Tổng Giám đốc
Phạm Thị Thu Nga
Kế toán trưởng
Võ Thị Thu
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
Methodology & Disclosure

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