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Real Estate sector

BCM

Real Estate
Tập đoàn Đầu tư và Phát triển Công nghiệp Becamex - CTCP
Bất động sảnCT
54.300
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Overvalued
Very Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
15.506
Current
54.300
Gap
-71.4%
ModelDCF LEVERAGE SCREEN

Valuation Breakdown

CTBất động sảnReal Estate
Classified as real estate because ICB sector "Bất động sản" maps to the real estate group
ModelRNAV + DCF Blend
Intrinsic = 40% x (BVPS x 1.5) + 60% x DCF Value

Real estate developers in Vietnam report land banks at historical acquisition cost (Vietnamese Accounting Standards don't allow revaluation). This means book value severely understates true asset value. This model blends two approaches: an RNAV proxy (revalued net asset value, applying a 1.5x factor to book value) weighted 40%, and a DCF on normalized cash flows weighted 60%. Highly leveraged firms receive a +2% WACC penalty.

1
Weighted Avg Cost of Capital
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
1.300
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
13.60%
Ke
13.60%
x
E/(D+E)
36.45%
+
Kd(1-t)
7.26%
x
D/(D+E)
63.55%
=
WACC
10.00%
+2% WACC penalty (high leverage)
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental firm blend4.17%
Growth decays 10%/yr toward terminal
3
Model Inputs
4
Valuation
40%RNAV Proxy
27.432
60%DCF Value
7.556
Blended Intrinsic
15.506
Value Decomposition
33%
67%
Explicit period (33%)Terminal value (67%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — BCM

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

48
Weak
Accrual Quality
76
Cash Conversion
0
Receivables
100
Margin Stability
62
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.14
Moderate
DSRI
0.605
GMI
1.115
AQI
1.067
SGI
1.327
DEPI
0.871
SGAI
0.764
TATA
0.060
LVGI
0.952

BCM shows signs of potential earnings manipulation with a Beneish M-Score of -2.1397, indicating a risk of financial misrepresentation. The earnings quality score of 48.3 suggests significant concerns, particularly with cash conversion and revenue recognition.

Red Flags
  • Beneish M-Score of -2.1397 indicates potential earnings manipulation, exceeding the threshold of -1.78.
  • Earnings Quality Score of 48.3/100, with cash conversion at 0.0/100, raises concerns about the reliability of reported earnings.
  • SGI at 1.3267 suggests aggressive revenue growth which may not be sustainable.
Positive Signals
  • Receivables quality score at 100.0/100 indicates effective management of receivables.
  • Low DSRI of 0.6051 suggests that inventory levels are well-managed relative to sales.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily dominated by state entities, with 95.4% held by local government bodies, which may lead to a lack of accountability and transparency in financial reporting.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution and conduct further due diligence on BCM, particularly regarding cash flow and revenue recognition practices before making investment decisions.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
5/9
Neutral
Z-Score
1.73
Distress Zone
Sharpe
-0.31
Negative
Composite
38
Weak
Price Risk
Momentum
+11.0%
Volatility
37.0%
Max Drawdown
-36.4%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
16.11P/E
P/B2.47
P/S8.09
ROE16.5%
ROA5.8%
EPS3370.50
BVPS21945.55
Gross Margin59.9%
Net Margin50.2%
D/E1.61
Current Ratio1.45
Rev Growth31.2%
Profit Growth59.5%
EV/EBITDA29.32
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
1035.0M
Charter Capital
10350.0B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Bất động sản
Industry (ICB L3)
Bất động sản
Sub-industry
Bất động sản
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for BCM — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Bình Dương
State
95.4%
987.8 trieu
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Thành Phố Hồ Chí Minh
State
95.4%
987.8 trieu
Nguyễn Văn Hùng
Indiv
0.6%
6.2 trieu
Nguyễn Phú Thịnh
Indiv
0.1%
1.2 trieu
Phạm Ngọc Thuận
Indiv
0.1%
1.1 trieu
Board & Management
Nguyễn Văn Hùng0.6%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Phú Thịnh0.1%
Phó Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Ngọc Thuận0.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị/Tổng Giám đốc/Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Giang Quốc Dũng
Người phụ trách quản trị công ty/Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Thị Thanh Nhàn
Kế toán trưởng
Quảng Văn Viết Cương
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Danh Tùng
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Văn Thanh Huy
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Nguyễn Văn Hiền Phúc
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nguyễn Thị Thùy Dương
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Hoàn Vũ
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Huỳnh Thị Quế Anh
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Huỳnh Vĩnh Thành
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Văn Hoàng
Phó Tổng Giám đốc
Computed 12/04/2026
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