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Utilities sector

TQW

Utilities
Công ty Cổ phần Cấp thoát nước Tuyên Quang
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt/Nước & Khí đốtCT
7.600
VND · Last close
Valuation Verdict
Undervalued
Low
-120%Fair Value+120%
Intrinsic Value
10.950
Current
7.600
Gap
+44.1%
ModelDDM 3STAGE

Valuation Breakdown

CTĐiện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốtUtility
Classified as utility because ICB sector "Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt" maps to the utility group
Model3-Stage DDM
Value = Sum of [DPS x (1+g)^t / (1+Ke)^t] + Terminal Dividend / (Ke - g_terminal)

The Dividend Discount Model values a stock based on its future dividend payments, discounted to present value. The 3-stage variant captures three phases of a company's life: high growth (years 1-3), a transition period where growth declines linearly (years 4-6), and a terminal stage of stable, perpetual growth (year 7+). As John D. Rockefeller said: "The only thing that gives me pleasure is to see my dividends coming in."

1
Cost of Equity (Ke)
Risk-Free (Rf)
4.50%
+
Betasector default
0.600
x
ERP
4.25%
+
CRP
2.75%
=
Cost of Equity (Ke)
8.70%
2
Growth Estimate
fundamental equity blend1.10%
3
Model Inputs
DPS source:Actual dividends
DPS600
Payout ratio92.2%
4
Valuation
Dividends Per Share
600
Base Growth
1.10%
Cost of Equity
8.70%
Terminal Growth
3.50%
DDM Value
10.950
Value Decomposition
26%
74%
Explicit period (26%)Terminal value (74%)

Valuation Track Record

Retroactive intrinsic value vs actual close price — TQW

Earnings Quality

Fiscal year 2025

55
Fair
Accrual Quality
75
Cash Conversion
100
Receivables
0
Margin Stability
100
Revenue Quality
0

Financial Forensics

Beneish M-Score · 2025

-2.24
Moderate
DSRI
1.450
GMI
1.020
AQI
1.020
SGI
1.061
DEPI
0.944
SGAI
0.941
TATA
-0.064
LVGI
0.858

The Beneish M-Score of -2.2419 indicates a low likelihood of earnings manipulation, as it is below the threshold of -1.78. However, the earnings quality metrics reveal significant weaknesses, particularly in receivables and revenue recognition, which could pose risks to financial integrity.

Red Flags
  • Earnings Quality Score of 54.9/100 indicates moderate earnings quality, with a concerning score of 0.0/100 for eq_receivables and eq_revenue, suggesting potential issues in revenue recognition.
  • DSRI of 1.4501 is above 1, indicating that accounts receivable are growing faster than revenue, which could signal aggressive revenue recognition practices.
Positive Signals
  • The cash conversion score of 100.0/100 indicates strong cash flow generation relative to earnings, which is a positive sign for liquidity.
  • A low DEPI of 0.9444 suggests that the company is not overly reliant on depreciation to inflate earnings.
Ownership Risk

The ownership structure is heavily concentrated, with 68.7% held by a single entity (Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Tuyên Quang), which may lead to governance risks and potential conflicts of interest.

Recommendation

Investors should exercise caution due to the elevated risk indicators, particularly regarding revenue recognition practices. It is advisable to monitor future earnings reports closely and consider diversifying exposure.

Generated by AI based on quantitative data. Not financial advice.

Quantitative Scores

F-Score
7/9
Strong
Z-Score
3.25
Safe Zone
Sharpe
0.00
Negative
Composite
53
Fair
Price Risk
Momentum
+0.0%
Volatility
0.0%
Max Drawdown
0.0%

Key Ratios

Fiscal year 2025
11.03P/E
P/B0.71
P/S0.90
ROE6.5%
ROA5.3%
EPS688.98
BVPS10688.98
Gross Margin31.7%
Net Margin8.1%
D/E0.19
Current Ratio1.41
Rev Growth6.1%
Profit Growth12.1%
EV/EBITDA4.12
Div Yield0.0%

Company Overview

Issued Shares
8.9M
Charter Capital
89.3B VND
Sector (ICB L2)
Điện, nước & xăng dầu khí đốt
Industry (ICB L3)
Nước & Khí đốt
Sub-industry
Nước
Company Type
CT

// OWNERSHIP_NETWORK

> mapping common ownership for TQW — hover nodes for intel, click to navigate

Shareholders
Ủy Ban Nhân Dân Tỉnh Tuyên Quang
Indiv
68.7%
6.1 trieu
nguyen-huu-tuan
Indiv
9.1%
814.400
Hoàng Quang Huy
Indiv
9.1%
814.400
Nông Thị Song Vân
Indiv
0.6%
53.000
Lê Văn Hoành
Indiv
0.5%
47.500
Trần Thị Khánh
Indiv
0.5%
46.300
Phạm Quang Sâm
Indiv
0.5%
45.100
Lê Văn Hải
Indiv
0.4%
40.000
Board & Management
Hoàng Quang Huy9.1%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Nông Thị Song Vân0.6%
Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Văn Hoành0.5%
Giám đốc/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Trần Thị Khánh0.5%
Kế toán trưởng/Thành viên Hội đồng Quản trị
Lê Văn Hải0.4%
Chủ tịch Hội đồng Quản trị
Phạm Thị Thắng
Trưởng Ban kiểm soát
Đinh Tiến Dũng
Phó Giám đốc
Trịnh Thị Phương
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Vũ Mạnh Cường
Thành viên Ban kiểm soát
Nguyễn Quang Huy
Phụ trách Công bố thông tin
Computed 12/04/2026
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